Three years ago, El País published an article under the name “Hurricanes ‘learn’ the way to Spain.” That year was the first in which three tropical cyclones approached the Peninsula in an unusual way. Until then, only one came every three or four years. However, the arrival of climatic phenomena from the Atlantic at the gates of Europe has intensified. While they used to weaken before reaching Spanish shores, climate change is making that less likely.
In other words, tropical storms are not only more likely to reach Europe, they are also more likely to maintain their intensity. And we are already seeing it. A major hurricane could hit Spain next week.
The hurricane everyone is talking about. As we have commented in Xataka a few hours ago, different meteorological models point out the probable formation of a hurricane around the Azores in the next 168 hours. The US National Hurricane Center yesterday increased the odds training above 60%. It is something that draws attention because of the latitude at which it is being formed. But not so much if we pay attention to the recent trend.
The tendency. Comparing recent data with previous decades, there is evidence that something is emerging. Tropical storms have reached Europe more frequently since 2000 than during the 1980s and 1990s. “It was normal for one to derail every three or four years and appear in the North Atlantic,” explained Juan Jesús González Alemán, expert in tropical systems. However, in the last 15 years the frequency has become practically annual.
What do the studies say? They do not portend a good future. A study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology published in Nature concludes that there is, in fact, a long-term trend toward an increasing number of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Previous research had already suggested a possible increase in intensity linked to climate change. But this research not only supports that storms will become more destructive, they will also increase in frequency.
Skimming Spain. In 2018, Leslie came crashing down with winds of more than 100 kilometers per hour. Not the most violent Category 3 Ophelia reached 48 degrees and 140 km/h in 2017. It is the most powerful that has passed closest to Spain and its winds accelerated the fires in Galicia and Asturias. Pablo (2019) and Vince (2005), which affected part of the Azores, also caused a maritime storm in the Bay of Biscay and Galicia. According to studies, those that will arrive from the second half of the century will have between 120-150 kilometers per hour.
Is it a consequence of climate change? North Atlantic surface temperatures have risen by 1.5°C since 1870, and that is expected to make future tropical storms more intense. Various experts and physicists suggest that climate change may have played an important role in the increase in frequency and intensity.
Hurricanes get their energy by extracting moisture and energy from warm ocean waters. Due to their heating, they reach a higher power. In addition, there is evidence that rising sea levels allow storm surge from hurricanes to reach further inland and cause more flooding.
Image: NASA