This is the second highest growth of the programs, after the 50% increase expected for the program Pension for the Welfare of Persons with Permanent Disabilities, but the budget for this, of 30,056 million pesos, barely represents a tenth of that of the Welfare Pension.
On average, all programs will grow 7.3%, details an Expansion estimate with figures from the 2023 General Economic Policy Pre-Criteria, which is the guide and preliminary document for the design of next year’s economic package.
The expected growth for pensions is not the same as for other programs because it is due to different needs, specifically the reduction of the age of beneficiaries and higher amounts for each monthly aid, explained Alejandra Macías, director of the Center for Economic and Budgetary Research ( CIEP).
In March 2021 it was announced that the universal pension will be given from the age of 65 in the country, when before the age was 68 for people living in urban areas, and 65 for those living in indigenous areas. In addition to the goal of reaching 3,000 pesos per month for each support in 2024, being at a level of 2,450 pesos.
This will absorb more and more resources from the public budget, in a context in which other pressures are being activated derived from support that was not given before, such as transfers to Pemex or the anti-inflation plan announced last week, explained Macías.
Pressures for public spending
CIEP projections estimate that a budget equivalent to 1.9% of GDP will be required so that in 2024 12 million adults over 65 in the country can be served.
This implies that total spending on contributory pensions (IMSS and ISSSTE) and non-contributory pensions (Pensión del Bienestar) will be 6.5% of GDP, which represents important challenges in terms of financing and the distribution of public resources, which in the context After the COVID crisis, it limits the redirection of resources to the health or education sector.
The increase also occurs when the programs to attend to early childhood and children are reduced for the following year, “a population that has been seriously affected by the closure of schools, which in the medium and long term can be detrimental for the economy”, commented the director of the CIEP.
He stressed that investment spending is more profitable to boost the economy than cash support.
According to the Treasury, among the social programs with the highest incidence, the Pension for the Well-being of Older Adults program stands out, which has benefited about 9.3 million people, and which in 2022 expects to achieve a coverage goal of 10.3 million people.
This program has a budget equivalent to the sum of the six most robust programs: Free medicines for people without social security; Massive Passenger Transport Projects in charge of Tourism; Health Care; Universal Scholarship for high school and basic education students Benito Juárez, and Sembrando Vida.