The United Nations published a shocking piece of information this week: there is only a 14% chance that we will succeed in limiting global warming to below 1.5°C. It is, perhaps, the most compelling testimony that shows the partial failure of the Paris Agreement, a commitment that almost all countries on the planet assumed in 2015 to stop climate change. But everything can be worse. For this reason, the governments of the world will meet next week to discuss corrective actions in the COP28.
The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) will be held in Dubai, from November 30 to December 12. The main objective of the meeting is, once again, to establish conditions that allow reducing the emission of polluting gases, the main drivers of current warming. And we are going very badly in this sense.
In 2022, for example, around 36.8 billion tons of polluting gases were emitted, the highest figure so far. None of the G20 countries – several of the most polluting – are reducing emissions at a consistent rate, warns the UN. Far from being projected downwards, emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases are expected to increase by at least 1.2% between now and 2030.
“It is a lack of leadership, a betrayal of the vulnerable and a huge missed opportunity,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said on Monday. “Current trends are leading our planet to a dead end.” It was Guterres who last August said that he had ended the era of global warming: “Now is the time for the era of global boiling.”
COP28 and the global warming goals of the Paris Agreement
It is not just another summit. Above all, because global warming has never been so obvious. Governments will meet at COP28 in what will be the hottest year in history, according to projections from the scientific community. Never before have we been so close to what Guterres himself has called the “point of no return”: the famous 1.5°C of warming.
This indicator refers to how much the global temperature has warmed since industrial activity began. The Paris Agreement set, in this sense, a two-tier objective: to do everything possible to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5 °C and keep it “well below” 2.0 °C.
Between November 2022 and October 2023, the planet reported a global average temperature of 1.3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Last Friday, for the first time, the Earth temporarily exceeded 2°C in one day, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service. It is not so serious because it is not a sustained trend – like the 1.3 °C of the last 12 months – but it is a new alert about where we are going.
Various projections assume that 1.5 ° C will be exceeded soon, in line with the probabilities of only 14% of success predicted by the UN. A new study, published at the end of October, estimates that it will occur in 2029. So the new plans are already pointing to how to avoid exceeding the second objective: 2 ° C of warming.
Countries and controversies at COP28
He report on the gap in emissions in 2023, published on Monday by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), leaves no room for doubt. If everything continues as before, the world is heading towards an increase of between 2.5 °C and 2.9 °C above pre-industrial levels in this same century.
The world needs to reduce emissions by 28% by 2030 to get on the path to achieving the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement. The UNEP report insists on the determining role of large economies. Therefore, it is appropriate—or paradoxical—that COP28 is in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates.
The United Arab Emirates is one of the top 10 oil producing countries. Oil, like gas and coal, is a fossil fuel. And fossil fuels are the great cause of climate change, because when they are burned to obtain energy they release gases that generate the greenhouse effect that warms the planet.
The host country has named as president of the COP28 talks to the CEO of the state oil company, Sultan Al Jaber. “It is the equivalent of appointing the CEO of a tobacco company to oversee a conference on cures for cancer,” Zeina Khalil Hajj, global campaign manager at 350.org, which fights for the end of the use of fuel, launched in January. fossils.
About the industry lobby
Al Jaber’s company, the Abu Dhabi oil company, plans to expand its production capacity in the coming years. And so, the industry in general. The strategies of the world’s 20 largest oil and gas companies, according to estimates from early 2023, will result in polluting emissions exceed the levels proposed in the Paris Agreement by 173% by 2040. By 2022 they had already exceeded them by 112%.
And governments are not far behind. According to latest report of The Lancet Countdown, 78% of the countries evaluated – which includes the most polluting ones – still promote fossil fuel production through net direct subsidies. In 2020, support was for a net total of $305 billion.
In addition to the almost 200 governments, More than 600 players from the fossil fuel industry were present at last year’s COP27. Participation grew by 25% compared to the previous summit, according to the BBC. This year, the UN ruled that representatives of oil, gas and coal companies have to disclose their ties to the industry if they want to participate in talks. A way to unmask the lobby and limit its influence.
In any case, it is expected that the great controversy at COP28 will have to do with the future of fossil fuels. The industry will propose a “phasing out” and some governments such as the European Union would talk about “phasing out.” Meanwhile, UN agencies and activists will continue to push for forceful and radical actions to achieve the objectives.
The help needed for poor countries
Second big controversy of COP28: money. At last year’s summit, the creation of a “loss and damage” fund was approved. It is an initiative that seeks to get the richest countries to financially support the poorest countries to help them face the effects of climate change. Also, to accompany them in the transition towards clean energies.
It does not seem far-fetched, considering that rich nations are the most polluting. But countries like the US have already ruled out paying these types of climate reparations. The initiative also tries to rescue the failure of another similar project.
The rich countries They had committed to mobilizing $100 billion a year by 2020, with the aim of helping those with fewer resources. They didn’t make it. An estimate from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which has not been confirmed, believes that it will be reached in 2022. But there is another problem: part of the money they have invested has gone to strange businesses. For example: a coal plant, a hotel and even a chain of chocolate shops.
The system is designed for cheating. The pledge came without official guidelines on what activities count as “climate financing.” It also does not require governments to report details. The UN Climate Change Secretariat has explained that it is up to the countries themselves to decide whether to impose uniform standards. Rich countries, of course, have refused.
The objective alone is insufficient. In a analysis on the financing needs of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, it was revealed that developing countries need aid of at least 6 trillion dollars to adapt to the objectives of the Paris Agreement. In any case, COP28 is expected to dictate clear rules on the scope of the “loss and damage” fund approved last year.
The emergency has already begun
According to the organization Climate Central, 7.3 billion people endured at least 10 days of high temperatures this year, which were at least three times more likely due to climate change. The impact of the climate crisis is already being felt by 90% of the planet’s inhabitants.
Heat is already a huge concern, but it is not the only one. So are storms and hurricanes, which are now twice as likely to be catastrophic. It is Antarctica and glaciers in much of the world, melting at record levels, affecting ecosystems and key water supplies for humans. There are at least 140 billion dollars a year in losses caused by climate change. It is the enhanced risk of infectious diseases.
It is urgent. According to the UNenvironmental factors They claim the lives of about 13 million people every year. Its secretary, António Guterres, asked this Wednesday the leaders of the world’s main economies to seek an “ambitious, credible and fair” result at the next COP28. Tomorrow is late.