“Although some challenges persisted –mainly related to the infections of (the variant) ómicron (of the coronavirus) in January and pressures on prices–, the general trend for activity seems to have been positive,” Grupo Financiero Banorte said in a report.
A survey conducted by the Reuters agency to 2 analysts, indicates that the increase in GDP in the first quarter would be led by a better performance of export-oriented manufacturing, and services that would have offset a decline in agricultural activities.
For 2022, Banco Base estimates a growth of 1.5%, “because the level of fixed investment does not give for more unless public policies are generated that encourage growth, but this seems unlikely,” said Gabriela Siller, director of analysis economic financial of Banco Base.
We expect activity to show slow growth for the rest of 2022, partially due to the effects of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, including supply chain disruptions, high inflation and weak investment. Citibanamex, in another report in which it cut its GDP growth estimate to 1.8% from 1.9% previously.
Added to this scenario is high inflation, which has moved far from the Bank of Mexico’s goal due to the pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine. In the first fortnight of April, the consumer price index reached 7.72% at an annual rate.
“This implies that Mexico is experiencing stagflation, which is the worst of both worlds: low growth and high inflation,” Siller said.
At an annual rate, GDP would have accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter, compared to an advance of 1.1% in original figures from the previous period, according to the Reuters survey. If the estimate materializes, it would string four consecutive quarters in growth.
The Inegi will release on Friday the timely estimate of GDP during the first quarter of 2022.