You are home at night and you get ready to watch something on TV. Netflix, Disney plus, HBO Max… linear TV, pay channels. The offer is so varied that you would not have imagined it a few years ago. But what a coincidence, this excess supply is so massive that, either you know very well what you want to see, or you may have heard of a new series or franchise that is just not in your contracted services.
Thes so-called ‘streaming wars’ have fragmented the world of television and entertainment offerings in small installments and payments that, although they may not seem very expensive alone, become important when they overlap. And that is an increasingly exclusive ecosystem, where the Disney, Marvel or Star Wars franchises can only be found on Disney Plus, everything from Warner on HBO or the umpteenth series that everyone is talking about is on Netflix , seems to be leading the user to choose.
Both Netflix and Disney Plus had data below expectations in their latest quarterly results. The red giant added 4 million subscribers worldwide, after a previous quarter in which it had only added 1. As a vision, it is worth saying that during the confinement quarter of 2020 they added more than double the number of subscribers than in all of 2021.
Disney plus, for its part, it remained in 2 million new registrations over the 10 million expected, and this despite the fact that the premieres of Marvel series continue to be concatenated. HBO Max did not have a different picture, with 2 million subscribers as of October 20 (before his arrival in Spain and other European countries), but losing almost the same number of customers in the United States.
Hello Peak TV? The entertainment bubble
Have we already reached a certain exhaustion in the number of platforms and offers? There are many condiments to respond to something like this, and even more so after a pandemic response that surely shook the market and closed the cinemas that are now returning to a certain normality.
If so, it would be fulfilling the theory of John Landgraf, director of the FX channel, which in 2015 he called Peak TV. Landgraf already believed then that the industry was generating too many series for all of them to have their share of attention, largely due to the emergence of digital platforms. According to his analysis, an “entertainment bubble” was being created.
Landgraf did not know then that two years later Disney was going to buy the entertainment arm of FOX, and would be immersed as a by-product of an even larger conglomerate that would prepare Disney Plus, but his vision was very neatly summed up.
The data that has not been repeated since 2010
The data on the creation and premiere of new series have been riding this trend. At least until now. While we were talking about 182 series series created in 2002 we have gone to peaks that are around or exceed 500 today, but the great change has occurred from 2014 to now, thanks to the irruption of Netflix, HBO and company, which for the first time in 2018 had more of their own series than those broadcast open-air and those served by cable in the United States.
On the other hand, increased competition has also increased churn or the rate of subscribers who unsubscribe. Users who peck at Netflix for a few months, and then sign up for another platform. There are explained in part, although they may seem counterproductive, movements such as the price increases that Netflix carried out a few weeks ago. Not only does he do it to continue producing content and feeding his own wheel, but to win budgets. If Netflix is somewhat more expensive, but it satisfies me, the consumer may not think of spending a little more to join another platform.
Well, although it looks like it is only a temporary hiatus, the COVID-19 coronavirus crisis has stopped this explosive increase for the first time in this decade. This is reflected in a new report prepared by FX, which indicates that in the calendar year 2020 it was 493, 7% less than in 2019, in which there were 532. The first decrease in 10 years.
It is evident that the cessation of filming due to the pandemic has part of the explanation, but also the enormous rotation of titles that there is. Returning to Netflix, it has become almost a habit that many series die to the third season, or that some like The OA or Altered Carbon They have it from one day to the next, leaving fans without explanation. It’s the algorithm, friend, and the great decision-making power.
Towards a turning point in streaming platforms. Or not
It cannot be denied that, even in the days before streaming, the networks did not shake their hand when eliminating the series that did not work. But, it is clear, that the current series bubble has increased the problem.
This situation also comes with a certain perception that excess supply, of course, also lowers quality. “We may still be inundated with display options, many of them of exceptional quality. But we also have too many programs that feel interchangeable, “he reflected in an article in the magazine. Time critic Judy Berman.
“Maximum redundancy it can only hold for so long before the platforms start to collide with the limits of free time and money available to viewers, ”he continued.
In 2020, during the height of the pandemic, almost all of the major television streaming services saw huge gains. In 2021, its growth has slowed and has started to decline in more mature markets. 2022, surely, is the moment that finishes telling us where we are. But don’t be fooled either, the subscriber machines that Netflix or Disney Plus have achieved have made economic giants like Apple take an interest in streaming as they say two days ago; so they must still see the hive full of honey.