1. Bank of Mexico
2022 will be a key year for Banxico due to three relevant aspects. The first is that Victoria Rodríguez Ceja assumes the governorship of the institution that is currently struggling to control inflation, which is at its highest levels in 20 years.
The second is the end of Gerardo Esquivel’s term as deputy governor, since he joined the central bank in January 2019 to replace Roberto del Cueto, who left office for health reasons. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador must propose to the Senate a new member of the Banxico Board or request that Esquivel stay for a new period of eight years, although the Mexican economist has ruled out the latter option.
The third point is inflation. The central bank estimates that prices would return to their target range of 3% until 2023. The outlook is further complicated because it is estimated that this new year, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will start with an increase in its rate of interest. interest.
2. Inegi
Like Banxico, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi) will have a woman as president for the first time in its history: Graciela Márquez replaces Julio Santaella as of January.
This process leaves a vacancy on the Inegi Governing Board, which must be proposed by the President of the Republic to the Senate.
Raymundo Campos, Gabriel Yorio and Fausto Hernández are some recognized economists who are trying to reach that position, according to specialists consulted by Expansión.
The members of the Board must be distinguished professionals in matters related to statistics, geography or economics; have held at least five years a high-level position in the public or private sectors, or be an academic of recognized prestige in the aforementioned subjects, refers to article 69 of the Law of the National System of Statistical Information and Geography (LSNIEG).
3. New variants of COVID
The appearance of new variants of the coronavirus virus is the main threat to the national and international economy, as it increases the risks that people will return to their homes and stop the process of reactivation of the productive sectors.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that in 2021, the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will have a rebound of 5.9%, but for 2022 and 2023 the rates will decelerate to 3.3% and 2.5%, respectively. .
For the agency, investment, education and the fight against labor informality are the three great internal challenges facing the country.
In the external part, the risks of inflation and the appearance of new strains of COVID that stop or delay the process of economic opening stand out.
4. United States
US corporate earnings growth is expected to slow next year after a highly successful 2021, with rising inflation and a variant of COVID-19 spreading rapidly, adding to uncertainty as the Investors try to justify stock prices trading near their all-time highs.
The S&P 500 is on track to rise about 24% in 2021, and the index’s price-earnings ratio is well above its long-term average, raising concerns that the market is overbought.
S&P 500 earnings are forecast at 8% in 2022, following an estimated 50% rise this year, as companies rebounded from shutdowns and recession in the early phases of the pandemic, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. .
Wall Street consensus estimates for 2022 have barely changed in recent weeks, even as stock indices have lost ground amid concerns about how quickly the omicron variant is spreading.
“We are entering an environment where we are likely to go from seeing multiple expansion to multiple compression,” said Robert Phipps, director of Per Stirling Capital Management in Austin, Texas, referring to the fact that a company’s profits increase but the Their share price does not follow the same path, leaving investors with little reward.
5. Commercial litigation?
The US government’s intention to implement fiscal incentives for the electric automotive industry in its territory has generated concern among its two main trading partners: Mexico and Canada.
Economy Secretary Tatiana Clouthier has said the country could retaliate if the United States approves such a stimulus.
The automotive sector, according to Clouthier, represents 4% of the Mexican gross domestic product, as well as 25% of exports and is responsible for more than one million jobs in the country.
In addition to the mechanisms contemplated by the T-MEC, such as consultations and panels, Mexico will also act through the World Trade Organization (WTO).
With information from Reuters