According to Nielsen IQ projections, mass consumption will remain stable “just because it is an election year does not mean that consumers they are going to buy more shampoomore toilet paper or more milkIn fact, we have seen that that does not happen,” says Raquel Jiménez.
With the expected demand for products that are outside the basic basket, department chains, such as Liverpool and Iron Palace They would be the winners of sales, and they usually give a boost to their credits, which have also given a boost to their sales.
Liverpool specified in its latest financial report that during the first half of the year, 48.5% of its sales were made with its credit cards, and it has managed to maintain healthy overdue portfolio levels at 2.8%. Palacio de Hierro does not make this data public.
Unlike department stores, self-service chains – such as Walmart, Chedraui, La Comer and Soriana– will have an impact due to the projected stabilization of mass consumption products. Although they will be able to win over consumers with offers and low prices, as they have done during the price increase, which although it is now controlled, left an accumulated increase in some products.
Humberto Calzada, chief economist at Rankia Latin America, agrees that next year there will be a boost to the sale of so-called durable goods if consumer confidence remains at current levels. During August, this indicator stood at 46.7 points, a monthly increase of 0.4 points, according to Inegi.
“The mexican economy It brings a good boost and if in the following year we begin to see the interest rate lower, 2024 will be a good year for the consumption of durable goods. For now, there are good fundamentals and domestic consumption is solid,” declares the specialist.
The growth of the southeast
Raquel Jiménez, from Nielsen IQ México, sees another factor that will be decisive in causing spending among buyers: the increase in public spending during the first quarter of the year, which in 2012 was 7.9%, and which is allocated to social programs, infrastructure works and other items, which have given a boost to consumption, at least in the Mexican southeast.
In the region made up of Campeche, Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Puebla, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán, an area where works such as the Mayan Train or the Dos Bocas refineryhas an increase in purchasing volume of 4.1%, while in the Valley of Mexico the increase is 1.5% and in the rest of the country the percentage varies in a range of +/- 0.5%.
“Mexico brings moderate growth. In reality, almost the entire country is already in contraction and the only region that is really bringing significant growth is the entire southeast, which has been the area where there has been the most public spending and the most investment,” declares Jiménez.