According to the satellites of the Earth Observation Program of the European Union, copernicus, the first days of June have broken a rather worrying record. And it is that, in little more than a week, it has overcome 1.5ºC rise in global temperature which was established in the Paris Agreement which should not be exceeded under any circumstances.
It should be noted that this had happened before, but never in June. At least not since the first records began to be made. In addition, it is important to highlight that what was established in Paris is that it would be worrying if this happened on average in a complete period, for 20 or 30 years. Therefore, there is still going back, but we must take this as a warning that we are not on the right track.
In fact, the ravages of climate change have been making themselves felt for some time. This is just a numerical example of the direction we’ve taken and that we should try to stop. If not, in a very short time the consequences will be catastrophic.
What was decided in the Paris Agreement?
In 2015, during the World Climate Summit held in Paris, 196 countries signed an agreement in which they promised to avoid an increase of 2ºC, if possible 1.5ºCof global temperatures with respect to pre-industrial levels.
We know that much of the increase in global temperatures is due to emissions from vehicles and industrial activity. For this reason, the period that occurred between 1850 and 1900. It was from there when human activity began to promote the increase in global temperatures that we now want to stop.
The calculations of the experts established that an increase of 2ºC with respect to that period It would be very serious if it were maintained over time. For this reason, it was decided to put the limit there and, if possible, at 1.5ºC. To this end, the signatory countries pledged to take the necessary measures to reduce emissions within their borders.
Some have done better than others, but what is clear is that, globally, it is not being fulfilled.
What does an increase of 1.5ºC in global temperature mean?
When talking about an increase of 1.5ºC we must remember that we are talking about global temperatures. That is to say, It does not consist of going from 28 to 29.5ºC at one point on the planet. These are fluctuations in a parameter called the radiative equilibrium temperature. It is something much more uniform, which derives from a law of physics, known as Stefan–Botzmann law. According to this, there is a mathematical relationship between temperature and the amount of energy emitted by radiation. Therefore, by measuring this, something similar to an average of the global temperature of the planet can be obtained.
That global temperature is the one that has passed 1.5ºC in the first 11 days of June, according to Copernicus. And that global temperature is what can continue to rise if we do nothing to fix it.
It can be solved, but we must not waste time
Measurements taken by ERA5, the fifth generation of atmospheric reanalysis that is part of Copernicus, come to confirm something that was already intuited. In fact, in May the World Meteorological Organization published a report which stated that there is a probability of the 66% that the world’s annual average temperature in 2023-2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.
We’re not there yet, but we’ve already surpassed that limit in global temperature at a time of year when we hadn’t gotten there yet. On the other hand, in that same report it was mentioned that there 98% probability that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record. And also 32% chance that the five-year average exceeds the 1.5 °C threshold.
From there to completing the 20-year period there is not that much distance. For this reason, it is clear that the measures of the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement they are not enough. Or they are not implementing them well. We must analyze the action plan, because it is already clear that we do not have time to spare.