“We must not forget, however, that there are sectoral and regional contrasts, and we still have to see the effects of a more restrictive monetary and financial environment.(…) there is a scenario with risks, but it is better than how we started the year with a 2% perspective, and now it stands at 2.4%. The first quarter of the year was better, given that the recession in the United States that was thought to be this year passed by 2024, so expectations improved appreciably,” the president of the IMEF, José Domingo Figueroa Palacios, said on Tuesday.
Mario Correa, president of the National Committee for Economic Studies, explained that for the first half of the year, economic activity in the US recovered, seeing job creation in the service sector. While in Mexico the first data on economic activity, especially in the industrial part, have been good.
“For the second part of the year, the question is, if this recovery can be sustained, how sustainable is what we are observing in private consumption? The money that has flowed through public finances, the support for social programs have provided a good amount of the boost to private consumption,” Correa considered at the IMEF monthly conference.
Another factor in the recovery, but one that will not continue, is the acceleration of the government’s flagship works.
In addition, there are other issues in the international financial system, liquidity is being reduced, and interest rates are increasing.
“We will barely be seeing the effects of interest rate hikes in the second part of the year. The reports from the companies are coming, we have to see how many report problems in their numbers due to debts, they are going to pay more interest, that can cause concern in the markets”, concluded the economist.