There is a large body of literature on the impact of sporting events on behavior: Brazilians have more heart attacks when their national team is playing; hospital admissions for heart attacks increased by 25% after England’s defeat by Argentina on penalties in the 1998 World Cup; suicides among young singles in Quebec grow if the local hockey team is knocked out of the Stanley Cup prematurely. Similarly, mood affects market performance.
Lost soccer matches have a significant impact on stock markets, especially during World Cup matches, according to an article published in the Journal of Finance. Monthly returns from a loss top 7% and are strongest for Western European economies and smaller stocks, the authors wrote. Smaller businesses tend to have a higher percentage of retail and local ownership. There was no corresponding benefit when the teams won.
Soccer team stocks are also much more responsive to unexpected results, according to an article in the Journal of Sports Economics. Although the study looked at local matches, and not international ones, it is not difficult to assume that the same logic applies to World Cup matches as well. It makes sense that the impact of an unexpected loss would outweigh that of an expected loss.