UBS analysts have pointed out that the energy reform initiative is unlikely to pass. However, if approved, it is expected to have a negative impact on the peso.
“There is a lot of fear about the Mexican economy due to all the initiatives and changes in laws that have taken place and it sticks to the exchange rate and generates greater volatility,” says Siller.
This fear has led many to seek refuge in the dollar and in the Treasury stock certificates, whose yield, in the case of the 10-year bond, rose to 1.6%, leaving behind the level below 1% that registered the highest part of 2020 and early this year.
The volatility and speculation seem not to end so soon. A few days ago, Jerome Powell, president of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed, for its acronym in English), changed the script by saying that inflation will be longer than initially thought outside the target, after it had been for months. insisted that the general rise in the prices of goods and services was temporary.
The central banker estimated that these levels out of range will remain “most likely throughout the coming year”, although he ruled out a rate hike.
However, this does not calm the markets. Bottlenecks in supply chains affect rising commodity prices, and businesses’ inventories and reserves of goods are depleted, due to rising demand once the global economy started its engines after remaining shut down. in 2020 due to the pandemic.
For James Beaumont and Nuno Teixeira, portfolio managers at asset manager Natixis IM, the widespread rise in prices intensifies the debate about how fast the Fed will decline in its asset purchases. So far, the result of these concerns has a winner: the dollar. “Inflationary fears and a more aggressive Fed has led to a stronger dollar,” experts said in a report.