Avatar 2: The Sense of Water, the sequel to the highest-grossing film of all time, has almost impossible expectations to exceed. Not only with specialized criticism and with the audience, but also in economic terms. The most optimistic forecasts calculate that the film will collect between 150 and 200 million during its first weekend in the United States, above the 77 million obtained by the original.
But maybe that’s not enough for the film to be successful from a purely economic point of view. Maintaining the level of the film that has generated the most income in history is not easy and James Cameron -director and creator of the franchise- knows it. Achieving it means a huge investment dedicated to the production and then to the marketing investment before and after the premiere. It is estimated that Avatar 2: The Sense of Water it has to break two billion dollars at the box office to stop losing money. His filming alone would have meant about 400 million dollars.
Cameron explained it in an interview in G.Q.where he has delved into the immense difficulties behind making a film like avatar 2with all associated production and economic risks.
To exemplify this, James Cameron showed the interviewer a visual effects sequence that was labeled as 405. “That means there are 405 versions of this that we’re looking at before it was sent to me,” she told him. The film should have been released years ago and, according to the article, in September, just three months ago, Avatar: The Sense of Water it was not finished yet.
Also, “the movie was insultingly expensive to make,” he said. In fact, he informed the studio that “it’s the worst business case in movie history” and that to be profitable “it’s going to have to become the third or fourth highest-grossing production in the world. That’s the threshold to stop losing money.” he lamented.
Currently these are the five most successful productions in history and their respective worldwide box office collections:
- Avatar ($2,922,917,914)
- Avengers: Endgame ($2,797,501,328)
- titanic ($2,201,647,264)
- Star Wars Episode VII ($2,069,521,700)
- Avengers: Infinity War ($2,048,359,754)
So that Avatar: The sI understand of the water should try to beat titanicwhich was also directed by James Cameron or Star Wars Episode VII, with 2,201,647,264 and 2,069,521,700, respectively, in order to be profitable. A tremendously big challenge.
whatAvatar: The sI understand of the water Will he be able to break the border of two billion dollars?
The question is if Avatar: The sense of the water it will be able to break the two billion dollar border in times when it is still difficult to attract people to the cinema. Especially in post-pandemic times where many people simply prefer to wait for movies to be released on digital platforms and watch them at home.
There is also a factor that can significantly impact the box office of the film and that is the international exposure it has. With Avatar, 73.1% of revenues come from international markets, especially China. More than 69.3% of Avengers: Endgame or 70% of titanic. So, for Avatar 2 to be successful, it needs to break into the Chinese market.
Another problem you are facing Avatar: The sI understand of the water is that the fever for 3D in the cinema has been left far behind, while Avatar took full advantage of it, with only 20% of the functions being in 2D.
Secondly, Avatar premiered in 2009 with 20th Century Fox as the studio. avatar 2 It will have all the power and push of Disney behind it, who bought the studio a couple of years ago. Another aspect that gives hope that they will succeed is the 1.5 billion dollars at the box office that Top Gun: Maverick has achieved, even though no one expected them to reach those collection levels.
Avatar: The sI understand of the water opens on December 16 in theaters around the world. Cameron reprises as director and writer alongside Rick Jaffa and Amanda Silver.