Pemex shipments abroad have averaged above what was projected by the Treasury in the Economic Precriteria 2023, the most recent document that sets the pace of progress of the economic assumptions contained in the budget for the year.
It is not the first time that the oil company’s sales to other countries have exceeded what was proposed by the federal government. In the first assumptions of the six-year term, the state-owned company will export 39% of its production this year, but the latest numbers indicate that the company has sent abroad around 50% of its production.
The goal of the federal government is to end all exports next year, once it takes office the Olmeca refinery, in Dos Bocas, Tabasco.
Industry analysts find two explanations as to why shipments have not stopped: the state-owned company does not yet have the refining capacity to use a large part of the crude it produces and high prices have made the federal administration change its strategy, all time that more resources are needed to deal with the gasoline subsidy.
The price of the Mexican export mix has not fallen below 90 dollars per barrel since last February 28, a few days after the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices were already on an upward run as a result of the restriction in supply after the Covid pandemic, but the armed conflict gave the last push to raise the price. The national mix has been on the brink of touching $120 a barrel.
Shipments have benefited the state company. And they have led her to report last quarter profits for 122,494 million pesos, the highest amount in about 18 years.
The injection of resources due to exports has had another effect: the state will take care of its debt amortization –valued this year at around 5,000 million dollars– at least in the short term. The federal government had announced that it would take charge of these payments until the last year of the six-year term to try to improve the company’s financial position.