predict earthquakes it’s not possible. Sometimes it is said that a seismic swarm it is always the preamble of a great tremor, but this may or may not occur. It does not serve as a prediction. In fact, there are those who consider that a method that would allow the prediction of earthquakes would be almost like the holy grail of seismology. No one has reached it so far, but there is promising studiessuch as one recently published by Polish scientists, which demonstrates a relationship between seismic activity and changes in cosmic radiation patterns.
This is something that has been intuited for a long time, but until now it had not been shown whether there really is a correlation. These scientists have done it with a high probability of success. In fact, according to their findings, earthquakes could be predicted 15 days in advance. But there is a problem, since, for the moment, they have not been able to determine the origin of earthquakes.
That is, it can be detected that there will be a great global earthquake, but it is impossible to know where. At least for now. Perhaps, by polishing the method, they will achieve it. For now, it is one of the moments when scientists are closest to predicting earthquakes. They will have to continue investigating in this way.
What are cosmic radiations?
Cosmic radiations are subatomic particles that travel to Earth from outer space, at high speed. That speed gives them a lot of energy. But they are also electrically charged. And that is why they are diverted by the Earth’s magnetic field. The latter is important to understand how they can help predict earthquakes.
Its origin is not entirely clear. Solar flares are known to release cosmic rays, but these are much more frequent than such flares. Therefore, there must be other phenomena, such as black holeswho are also involved.
How do they help us predict earthquakes?
It is known that the currents generated in the earth core are responsible for the formation of that magnetic field which we have already seen that it deflects cosmic radiation. On the other hand, earthquakes can affect these underground currents, intervening in the magnetic field and, in turn, in the how cosmic radiation is deflected. Thus, if a correlation between the tremors and the deviations in these rays could be detected, we would be in front of a method for predict earthquakes.
In order to check if this is possible he was born CREED (Cosmic Ray Extremely Distributed Observatory), a project of the Institute of Nuclear Physics of the Polish Academy of Sciences (FIP PAN). This one has several observatoriesalthough for this research were based on data from twoone in each hemisphere: the Neutron Monitor Database project, collected over the last 50 years, and the Pierre Auger Observatory, collected since 2005. Regarding global seismic information, they obtained it from the United States Geological Survey.
Thus, they saw that, indeed, there was a correlation between the sum of the magnitude of all the earthquakes greater than 4 and the intensity of the secondary cosmic radiations. These radiations are those produced by the interaction of rays from outer space with the earth’s atmosphere.
Changes could be detected 15 days before the peaks of seismic activity. Therefore, it could help predict earthquakes. The problem is that, as we have seen, the sum of all the tremors on the planet was made. Knowing where the ones that would lead to those peaks would occur, for the moment, has not been possible.
mysterious cycles
Another interesting fact that has been seen with this study is that changes in the intensity of cosmic radiation occur in cycles of 10 or 11 years. Interestingly, it coincides with the duration of the solar cycles. But the peaks do not occur at the same time, so that periodicity may possibly come from elsewhere. Knowing where it came from may help predict earthquakes in another, more accurate way. There is work ahead, but perhaps these scientists have taken another step towards finding that long-awaited Holy Grail.