The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (Ideam) confirmed that there will be climatic changes that will be experienced in the different regions of the country during the second half of 2021. To begin, during August, September and October, Magdalena, Atlántico, Cesar, the municipalities of the center of Bolívar, Norte de Santander, Boyacá, Cundinamarca and various sectors of Tolima will have an increase of between 10 and 20% in their rainfall.
Additionally, in these three months there will be reductions between 10 and 20% in rainfall on the coast of Cauca and west of Caquetá. For November it is expected that there will be an increase in the temperature of the sea in the Caribbean, which is why rains would increase by up to 40% in the Caribbean and Andean regions, in the Orinoquía region and the Pacific Chocoano.
“It is recommended to have active contingency plans in view of the probability of landslides in unstable and vulnerable areas that present current dynamics due to slope instability,” said Ideam.
For the consolidated November-December-January quarter, in principle there would be increases in rainfall between 10% and 40% in most of the Caribbean and Andean regions, along the coast of Chocó in the Pacific region and much of the center -Western Orinoquía. For the rest of the country; In other words, in the rest of the Pacific region, eastern Orinoquía and a large part of the Amazon, rains close to historical averages are expected.
Dividedly, for August the panorama in the regions would look like this:
San Andrés and Providencia: Rainfall is expected close to the climatological averages in San Andrés and between 10% and 20% below said values in Providencia.
The Caribbean Region: Precipitation is estimated between 40% and 60% above the historical averages in the north of La Guajira; between 20% and 40% in the south of La Guajira, Atlántico and the center-south of Cesar; between 10% and 20% in Bolívar and north of Magdalena and Cesar. For the rest of the region, rains close to the 1981-2010 reference climatology are forecast.
Andean region: Rain increases between 20% and 40% are estimated with respect to the climatological averages in Norte de Santander, central-eastern Tolima and eastern Valle and Cauca. Increases in rainfall between 10% and 20% are expected in the west and south of Antioquia, central-west Cundinamarca, Quindío, Caldas, Risaralda and west of Tolima. For the rest of the region, values close to the historical averages are estimated.
Pacific region: Rainfall is expected between 10% and 20% above the 1981-2010 averages in the center of Chocó and between 10% and 20% below them along the coastlines of Cauca, Valle and Nariño.
Orinoquía: Precipitations are estimated close to the climatological values except along the Llanero de Casanare foothills where reductions between 10% and 20% are predicted.
Amazon: Precipitations are forecast very close to the 1981-2010 reference climatology, except in the center and west of Caquetá, where reductions between 10% and 20% are estimated with respect to historical values.
The models predict that the sea surface temperature will remain within climatological averages during the northern hemisphere summer and approximately half of the dynamic models predict normal conditions throughout the forecast period (from the June-July-August quarter of 2021 to March -April-May 2022).
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