Mathematics can explain many things that we see in our life. In fact, it seems that it may even be a help to better understand why being a Roman emperor was a risky job. Because, as we know from history, dying betrayed was the most common thing among the rulers of Rome. Now, researchers have discovered a dark pattern, related to Pareto’s Law, which seems to explain all this. But let’s see what has been observed.
“Although they seem random, the probability distributions in power law form they are found in many other phenomena associated with complex systems, “says the data scientist Francisco Rodrigues, from the University of São Paulo (Brazil). In addition, it points out that the reigns of the Caesars themselves are one of those contexts, according to Science Alert.
Let’s name things. And it is that the distribution of the power law that seems to define the longevity of the Roman emperors is called Pareto Law, according to Rodrigues. This law is also known as the Pareto Principle or the 80/20 rule. As a rule, it is usually related to “economic inputs and outputs; but in terms of probability distribution, it can be simplified to mean that common events have a probability of about 80%. While the rare ones have 20% “, indicates the medium.
Pareto’s Law in the Roman Empire
If we take this to the Roman emperors, the common occurrences they would respond to violent deaths; while the rare they would be the few rulers who could die naturally, especially in the early days of the empire.
In the research, published in the scientific journal Royal Society Open Science, the researchers explain that from the first emperor Augustus (died 14 AD) to Theodosius (died 395 AD); the rulers of Rome had only one chance in four (24.8%) to live long enough to be able die naturally.
But if, in addition, the entire Roman Empire is taken into account, that is, from the first Augustus until the fall of the Byzantine Empire in 1453; the situation was not much better. In fact, by looking at the deaths of the 175 Roman emperors from this time period; each ruler had only a 30% chance of living to old age and therefore not being assassinated.
The years of greatest risk
Furthermore, we know that there were years, even times, when being emperor in Rome was much more dangerous than to do it at other times, according to the researchers in their study.
“When we analyze the time until the death of each emperor, we discover that the risk was high when the emperor ascended the throne“Rodrigues affirms.” This could have something to do with the difficulties and demands of the job and the lack of political experience of the new emperor. “
And is that all jobs have a trial period, so the emperor was not going to be less. However, if he exceeded his trial period particular without having been murdered, the chances of survival in office improved rapidly. Although the risk was never zero, of course.
Furthermore, at a certain point, the emperor’s enemies were on their way again. That date after the probationary period was about 13 years after he took office. From the age of 13 as emperor the possibilities skyrocketed again.
“It may be that after the 13-year cycle the emperor’s rivals concluded that they were unlikely to ascend to the throne by natural means, “says Rodrigues.” Perhaps their former enemies regrouped, or they may have arisen new rivals“.
Earthquakes
Finally, the researchers point out that, from a mathematical point of view, Roman emperors’ lifetimes somewhat resembled earthquakes. In the study they point out that the probability that the emperors had short lives is similar to the probability that small earthquakes occur (more common events than large ones).
Luckily for everyone, the Roman Empire is over. But let’s not forget that mathematics can continue to hide in other places in our life and in History.