Mexico could not escape being infected by EG.5.1, however, at this time its spread in the country is not entirely clear due to one circumstance: the lack of funding that was registered to track the evolution of the infections for several weeks. subvariants. But that does not mean that it awakens the nightmare either.
The story about Covid-19, in a way, is repeating itself. In 2021 and 2022, very marked peaks of infections were recorded in the summer months. At first it was the Delta variant and a year later the Ómicron. By then, humanity discovered that variants and sub-variants would go beyond the protection of vaccines and evolve to be more transmissible but less lethal, due to their own microbiological changes and ‘herd immunity’.
Now, the EG.5.1 subvariant begins to be transmitted and in a few weeks it will be the dominant one. Currently, there is not much data on its characteristics, but what is already known is that it is more contagious and has the conditions to escape the immune response of antibodies. In China, Japan, Europe, Australia, the United States, infections have doubled and in a matter of days they will multiply.
“This virus has characteristics of accelerated growth and the ability to evade the immune response. There are few studies, but the level of protection measured by neutralizing antibodies decreases four times in relation to this virus. However, there are no data that imply or prove that it has a greater severity”, explains Dr. Carlos Arias, coordinator of the Mexican Consortium for Genomic Surveillance and recently recognized as Emeritus Researcher at UNAM.
The new Ómicron subvariant has already arrived in Mexico, but at this time there is not much data on its spread. Given the lack of financial support, the Consortium stopped monitoring the behavior of the subvariants in March 2023. Now, said support has been renewed but there is a significant gap in monitoring the virus and it is expected that in two months it will be possible to count on a clear vision of what has happened to the great family of Omicron in the country.
For now, there are two reported sequences of EG.5.1, both in CDMX, in July, although it is estimated that it arrived earlier.
While in other countries the infections began to multiply, what is happening in Mexico is not exactly a wave, since the number of confirmed cases is very low. But we are facing a trend related to the epidemiological context of this season. In other words, the downward trend of positive cases stopped in mid-June and, from then on, infections rose. The turning point occurred when the number exceeded 3,000 reported cases. However, that does not correlate with deaths, which continue to decline.
Of every 100 tests carried out nationwide, an average of 37 are positive. Few tests are being carried out today, there is no technically designed sampling that is representative, but it is an indicator that tells us something: the virus is circulating in the community and it is finding favorable conditions for its transmission.