Although there is no significant decline in the US economy, “we expect a certain slowdown next year, to see that soft landing” of the US economy.
In line with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Monex estimates US GDP growth of 1.5%.
He added that, throughout this year, upward adjustments have been made to the expected growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States and Mexico.
For the United States, growth estimates at the beginning of 2023 were 0.5%, now an increase of 2.2% is expected. For Mexico, the expectation of economic growth went from 0.9% to around 3.3%.
“The adjustments, explained Quiroz, are due to the behavior of the global labor market, such as in the United States, Mexico and the Eurozone, which has registered a low unemployment rate. The fact that savings remain high worldwide has also influenced, although they have decreased in the United States; as well as the multiplier effect of public spending, a product of the fiscal stimuli delivered during the pandemic.”
Mexico
In addition to the result of GDP growth of 3.5% in the third quarter of the year, very far from the average of 1.9% between 2008 and 2019, before the pandemic, there is good news around gross fixed investment and consumption.
Quiroz specified that, although consumption has not yet reached pre-pandemic levels, this gap has been reducing.
Regarding gross fixed investment, he added, “it has had extraordinary growth”, mainly supported by greater spending on imported machinery and equipment – something that has been favored by the appreciation of the peso against the dollar.
Likewise, the effects of the nearshoring, “at least in a greater use of the currently installed force. We see this in terms of the imports that the United States makes from Mexico. From February to date (Mexico), it is already the main supplier to the United States,” Quiroz highlighted.
Mexico and Canada, mainly the American southern neighbor, have been the winners of the protectionist policies of the United States, which began with Donald Trump and continued with Joe Biden, against China, which has lost ground in sales to the most important economy in the world. .