Summer has a problem.
For the film industry, summer is the best period. It is when the super productions are released, films with a lot of action, special effects, animations, which take advantage of the fact that the public has more time, that families look for entertainment options. The period is a little longer than the seasons mark and runs from May to September (ends with Labor Day in the US). This year began with “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (on May 5) and will end with “The Equalizer 3” (on September 4, although in reality the last high-profile premiere will be “Blue Beetle” which premieres on August 18th). At just under half, the box office is starting to show a problem.
For practical industry purposes, success is measured at the box office, there is no more. The numbers speak. For the box office the first weekend is essential. It marks the starting point because from there it will decrease and from there projections can be made about how many weeks it will be in theaters. It must be considered that the average film loses 60% each week. That is to say, a film that debuts at 100 million dollars, will collect the next 60, one after 36, the one that follows 21 and so on. The weekend shows signs of it. Now, that’s not the only variable. You have to consider what was released before, at least the previous week, what was released the same week and what will be released the following week, even the following ones. That’s where the problem is.
“Avatar: The Way of Water” is an example of a film that was released strategically. It was launched on December 6, 2022 and from there there was no other premiere with that profile until February 17 when “Ant-Man & Wasp: Quantunmania” arrived, that is, it had 11 weeks that helped it raise more than two billions of dollars that allowed it to recover the more than 350 it cost, a goal that seemed difficult to achieve. A more recent case is “Super Mario Bros, the movie” that premiered a month before “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” and did not have much competition in that period. Today it is the highest grossing film of the year with 1.3 billion dollars. Summer has been another story.
From “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” came two weeks later, on May 19, “Fast and Furious 10”; one after “The Little Mermaid” (on the 26th) and so they continued and will continue week by week, “Spider-Man: Through the Spider-Verse” (June 2), “Transformers: The Awakening of the Beasts” (June 9 ), “Flash” (June 16), “Elements” (June 16 in the US and June 23 in other markets); “Indiana Jones and the dial of fate” on June 30 and will continue. On the weekend of July 21, “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” arrive. See the problem? One high-profile, heavily budgeted title after another, though aimed at different markets, are giving the previous one little chance of staying on the agenda.
For example, “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” has raised 786 million in four weeks and it seems difficult to reach the 869 reached by its predecessor, which also cost 50 million dollars less. Its debut was good with 118 million dollars (8 above projections), but the arrival of other titles has prevented it from decreasing less each week. The previous week it finished in fourth position with 10 million dollars (“Super Mario Bros” is still on the billboard, by the way, and added 3 million). At the time it was the best debut of a film in the year (today surpassed by “Spider-Man: Through the Spider-Verse”), today it is clear that it will not reach “Super Mario Bros”, the film that previously held the position. The titles that preceded it go at 618 million (“Fast and Furious 10”) and 347 (“The Little Mermaid”), both already with speculation about whether they can be considered successes since the first cost 340 and the second 250. The costs of production (those declared) do not include marketing expenses. Given a budget of 200 million, the expectation is at least 800.
Faced with such a crowded box office, summer 2023 will end up handing out small slices that will hardly allow each title to shine beyond one or two weeks. In this case, the reverse applies, the one who pushes a lot, covers little.