Nearly a year after launching the invasion of Ukraine that has sparked the biggest conflict in Europe in six decades, Putin continues to accuse the West of trying to turn the war into a global conflict. “The US wants to inflict a strategic defeat on us and reclaim our nuclear facilities,” he explained in his last speech. His latest maneuver has been to suspend the historic nuclear arms control treaty and announce that they are resuming tests with them.
a broken deal. After an hour and 45 minutes speaking under a large Russian double-headed eagle crest, Putin has vowed that Moscow will achieve its goals in Ukraine and thwart the US-led NATO alliance. To achieve this, he has said that Russia will suspend its participation in the new START treaty, the last arms control agreement that his country has with Washington.
This treaty was signed in 2010 by the then US president, Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev. The goal was to limit the number of nuclear warheads countries can deploy (to 1,550 warheads and 700 missiles and heavy bombers). That is, it allows each country to physically verify the other’s nuclear arsenal. However, Putin’s recent announcement is only formalizing much of what Russia was already doing.
Implying? In the short term, not much. The message is more symbolic than anything else. As we said, Russia already announced six months ago (due to the conflict in Ukraine) that it would no longer allow inspections of its nuclear arsenal, something that the Americans criticized. Furthermore, what is certain is that Moscow is not going to build a massive new arsenal by tomorrow.
Nonetheless, it is still important, basically because this was the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia. And, in the long run, if relations between the two countries fall on deaf ears, it could lead to a new nuclear arms race. In fact, Putin’s plans have not been entirely clear, but experts warn that if Putin now went further and stopped routine reporting and data sharing on nuclear weapons movements and other related developments, it would be a harsh bang.
Russian rhetoric. Putin has been hinting for months that Russia could use a nuclear weapon if threatened. But in reality it seems that what he was trying to explain is that he could dismantle nuclear arms control unless the West backs down on Ukraine. In his speeches, he criticizes NATO’s eastward expansion since the Cold War and claims the West seeks a “strategic defeat” of Russia.
It also argues that while the US has pushed for the resumption of inspections of Russian nuclear facilities under the treaty, NATO allies helped Ukraine mount drone strikes against Russian airbases that host strategic bombers with nuclear capabilities. nuclear.
Constant nuclear threats. All this has meant that frightening enemies with nuclear power has become a constant for Putin for years. Russia has always had a substantial number of ICBMs that could attack the US and Europe. But, as we discussed in this other Magnet article, Putin’s recent threats are, in the end, a simple show of force.
Every time Biden says he doesn’t want escalations with Russia, the strategy works. That is, Putin is making us cautious and limiting our activities to try to avoid nuclear war. The other side is that he doesn’t want one either, because he doesn’t benefit him even remotely.
China at stake? On the other hand, what the West does worry about is that Beijing may be considering supplying Russia with weapons, a move that could turn the war into a battle between Russia and China on one side and Ukraine and NATO on the other. Although the Asian country denies any nuclear escalation, it has reaffirmed a new far-reaching alliance with Russia and Russia sees them as an ace up its sleeve to fight the West.
Image: GTRES