“The (Ukrainian) economy is expected to enter a deep recession this year,” the document said, citing the sharp contraction in demand and the disruption of supply chains, among other things.
In the event that the war ends in the short term, the Fund’s estimates point, “at least”, to a 10% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) this year.
However, he warned that with a “protracted conflict” the annual contraction in Ukraine could be much higher, between 25% and 35%, a range already seen in other countries immersed in recent wars such as Syria or Yemen.
“A growing loss of physical capital and mass migration could result in an even more significant contraction, with a collapse in trade flows, a further decline in tax collection capacity, and a further deterioration in its fiscal and external position,” he pointed.
Last week, the organization’s Executive Board approved the disbursement of 1.4 billion dollars in emergency aid to Ukraine.
The amount approved by the IMF matches that requested by the Ukrainian government and seeks to “mitigate the economic impact” of the war initiated by Russia.
The refugees who have fled from Ukraine since the outbreak of the war, on February 24, already reach 2.8 million, of which more than half (1.7 million) arrived in neighboring Poland, according to figures updated daily by the Agency of the UN for Refugees (UNHCR).
The rest of Ukraine’s neighboring countries continue to receive this flow of refugees and, among them, 255,000 arrived in Hungary and 204,000 in Slovakia, due to a conflict that has also caused more than two million internally displaced persons.