Bitcoin and most major altcoins are seeing aggressive selling at higher levels, indicating that the bears are trying to make a comeback.
JPMorgan Chase won the auction to acquire the deposits and a “substantial majority of the assets” of troubled bank First Republic. This bankrupted the third regional bank in the United States since March and exposed vulnerabilities in the legacy banking system.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied for four straight months from January to April, a feat it last accomplished in 2013. Will the rally continue into May?
The historical data does not give a clear advantage to either the bulls or the bears in May. Performance is split right down the middle, with five positive and five negative monthly closes in May, according to Coinglass data.
Bitcoin’s rally faces a tough hurdle above $30,000, indicating that bulls are cautious about buying at higher levels. This could be due to the upcoming Fed meeting on May 2-3, which is known for causing increased volatility in the short term.
What are the levels that bulls should defend in Bitcoin and other altcoins if they want to keep the chances of continued bullish movement alive? Let’s study the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
S&P 500 Index Price Analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) bounced off the 50-day SMA (4,035) on April 26 and reached the overhead resistance of 4,200 on May 1.
The bears are expected to defend strongly in the 4,200-4,325 zone. If the price turns down from the upper zone, but does not break below the moving averages, this will suggest that sentiment is turning positive and traders are buying the dips.
This would increase the probability of exceeding 4,325 points. If this happens, the index could accelerate towards 4,500 and then towards 4,650 points.
If the bears want to get ahead, they will need to quickly pull the price below the 50-day SMA. That could sink the index to the uptrend line.
Analysis of the price of the US dollar index
After trading between the 100.82 support and the 20-day exponential moving average (101.93) for the past few days, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trying to break out of the range.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been gradually rising towards the center, indicating that the selling pressure is easing. If the buyers hold the price above the 20-day EMA, the index could rally to the 50-day SMA (103.05).
If the buyers hold the price above the 20-day EMA, the index could rally to the 50-day SMA (103.05).
If the bears want to further strengthen their position, they will have to pull the price below 100.82 points. This would complete a bearish head and shoulders pattern, starting a possible downtrend towards 97.50.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
The long wick on Bitcoin’s April 30 candle shows that the bears are aggressively defending the resistance above $30,000.
The price turned lower and crashed on May 1, but one small silver lining is that the bulls are fiercely protecting the 50-day SMA ($28,146). This suggests that the BTC/USDT pair may range from $26,942 to $30,000 for a while.
Typically, a trade in a tight range is followed by a range expansion. If the price continues to decline and sinks below $26,942, the pair can drop to the crucial support at $25,250. Conversely, if the range expands, the pair can drop as low as $30,000.
Conversely, if the range expands above $30,000, the pair could rally as high as $31,000 and then as high as $32,400. A break above this level will signal a pick up in momentum.
Ethereum Price Analysis
The bulls are struggling to push and hold the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,896), which indicates that the bears are trying to turn this level into resistance.
The 20 day EMA has started to turn down gradually and the RSI has dipped below 45, indicating that the bears have a slight advantage.. If the bears dig in and hold the price below $1,785, the ETH/USDT pair could drop to the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $1,663.
Conversely, if the price rises from the current level, The bulls will once again try to push the pair above the psychological $2,000 level. If they do, the pair could rally to the $2,200 resistance.
BNB Price Analysis
BNB (BNB) bounced off the 50-day SMA ($323) on April 30, indicating that the bears continue to protect this level in full force.
The price action of the past few days has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision between buyers and sellers. The 20-day EMA ($328) is gradually sloping up and the RSI is just above the midpoint, which indicates a bit of an advantage for the bulls.
If the buyers break out of the triangle, it will start a new bullish move. The BNB/USDT pair could reach the target of $380 and $400 thereafter.
The bassists probably have other plans. They will try to sink the pair below the support line of the triangle and deepen the correction to $280.
XRP Price Analysis
XRP’s (XRP) rally hit a wall at the 20-day EMA ($0.47) on April 29, suggesting that sentiment is negative and traders are selling rallies.
The bears will try to pull the price towards the strong support of $0.43. This is an important level to watch because if it cracks, the XRP/USDT pair could crash down to the next major support at $0.36.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20 day EMA. Such a move will suggest that the bears are losing their grip. This would open the doors for a possible rally to the resistance line. If the bulls break out of this barrier, the pair could reach $0.56.
Cardano Price Analysis
The buyers are having a hard time pushing Cardano (ADA) above the neckline, indicating that the bears are fiercely protecting the level.
One small bright spot for the bulls is that they have not allowed the price to slide below the 50-day SMA ($0.38). The RSI is in the negative territory and the 20-day EMA ($0.40) is flattening out, indicating that the bears are trying to get the upper hand.
If the ADA price falls below $0.37, the selling could intensify and the ADA/USDT pair could turn down to the next support at $0.33.
To the upside, the bulls will have to cross the neckline hurdle to retest $0.46. A break above this level will signal the start of a new uptrend.
Polygon Price Analysis
Polygon (MATIC) is facing selling from bears on relief rallies, while the bulls are trying to defend the support at $0.94.
The trend is unlikely to continue for long. The dip of the 20-day EMA ($1.03) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the downside. If the bears pull the price below $0.94, the MATIC/USDT pair could plummet towards $0.69.
Conversely, if the price rally from the current level and break above the 20 day EMA, it will suggest the start of a stronger rally. The pair could then rally to the resistance line, where the bulls will once again face stiff resistance from the bears.
Dogecoin Price Analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($0.08) on April 30, indicating that the sentiment is negative and the bears are using the rallies to sell.
The price has reached the support near $0.08. If this level gives way, it will suggest that the bears have taken over. The sellers will try to take advantage and drag the DOGE/USDT pair towards the next support at $0.07. The bulls are expected to defend the $0.07-$0.06 zone with all their might.
Conversely, if the price bounces from the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are gathering at the lower levels. Bullish momentum could pick up after buyers break through the downtrend line. The Dogecoin price could then rise to $0.11.
Solana Price Analysis
Solana (SOL) turned down from $24 on April 30, indicating that the bears are active at higher levels. The price has reached the 50-day SMA ($21.74), which is an important level to watch.
The short-term advantage will tilt in favor of the bears if they manage to sink the price below the 50-day SMA. Then, the SOL/USDT pair could drop to the strong support of $18.70. Buyers are likely to protect this level hard. If the pair bounces from $18.70, the bulls will try to clear the $24 hurdle.
If they do, the pair will try to reach $27.12. A drop from this level may result in a price range between $27.12 and $18.70 for some time. Alternatively, if the bulls catapult the price above $27.12, the next stop could be as high as $39.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risks, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.