In contrast, the other two large regional blocs consume more energy than they produce: Europe imports 27,325 TJ in 1990 and the figure increases to 37,592 TJ in 2019. In China the numbers are more impressive: it goes from a small surplus balance in 1990 to 967 TJ to a deficit of 32,839 TJ in 2019. These two regions of the planet have an Achilles heel; to move their powerful machinery, they need the energy of others.
The change in the position of our region is largely due to the revolution of the shale in United States. Although its impact on the oil production of our neighbor to the north should not be overlooked – it went from 11 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2008 to 20 mbd, 10 years later – it is the natural gas category that I am interested in highlighting. Its contribution to the total regional supply of 38.8 million TJ is no longer so far from that corresponding to oil (41.0 million TJ). This implies abundance in the key hydrocarbon for the energy transition.
It should be elaborated. The use of renewable energy sources (wind, solar) is imperative to address climate change, but also to reduce energy dependence, since they are less marketable than hydrocarbons. That is, in a world where this type of sources prevail, the aforementioned energy imbalances should be smaller. To date, the problem is one of intermittence: by not guaranteeing a regular supply of energy, they require the complementarity of sources such as natural gas.
In North America, we thus have a firm footing in the energy matrix of the 20th century, but we also have the necessary resources to make a smooth transition to the energy matrix of the 21st century. The contrast with China is particularly stark: its power generation is very “dirty” – 3.2 times more coal than oil, for example – and a more determined move towards sustainability would dangerously increase its energy dependence. If today Russia keeps Europe awake at night, tomorrow it will perhaps be China that keeps Russia awake at night.
And Mexico? We have played a marginal role in changing regional circumstances and by choice. Our geological conditions are similar to those of our neighbors and partners. We could have contributed more to the energy matrix that is about to change – our energy production drops 23.2% between 1990 and 2020 – but we did not.