“I am not anti-vaccine, but…”. This phrase has become a classic on social networks and table conversations since the coronavirus pandemic began. Many people claim to have nothing against vaccines. However, they are against specific vaccines. For example, those that have helped to reduce the severity of the pandemic that has not yet ended today. Others are not against specific vaccines, but they are against the entire population. It is the case of Elon Muskwho recently stated in a Twitter conversation that he is in favor of vaccines in general, but believes that “there is a point where the cure/vaccine is potentially worse, if given to the entire population, than the disease.”
Despite being nothing more than a reply to someone else’s tweet, the post already has more than a million reproductions on Twitter. Therefore, there are many users who have read that statement. given his media reachit is possible to think that there could be people who get carried away by their statements when choosing whether or not to get vaccinated.
As Spiderman’s uncle said, with great power comes great responsibility. Has Elon Musk had it when making this statement? Is it true that vaccines can be worse than the disease if they are administered to the entire population? The short answer is no.. But let’s see what science says about it.
The SIR model and its importance in pandemics
To understand how any pandemic or epidemic works, the SIR model. This refers to how the population evolves divided into three groups, depending on whether they are susceptible, infected, or have recovered. Logically, at first everyone is susceptible to getting sick, unless there is some resistance due to genetic causes, but that would be a negligible minority.
However, as the infected population increases and recovers (or dies, in the worst case), the susceptibility decreases. This is because, generally, the immune system of the survivors is prepared to fight a next infection.
Up to here we talk about natural immunity. The one that carries the infection itself. However, immunity can be obtained in a safer way through vaccination. In this way, deaths and the susceptible population is reduced in less time. Thanks to vaccines, a disease can even be eradicated, when there is very little susceptible population and the pathogens have nowhere to move. This is what happened with smallpox. Other diseases, such as poliothey have not been completely eradicated, but they have been eliminated in a good part of the planet.
Not all vaccines are the same
Now, there are vaccines that they are not sterilizing. That is, they do not prevent the disease from occurring, but they do favor its occurrence with milder symptoms. It is the case of current coronavirus vaccines. Precisely for this fact, because they do not stop transmission, the ideal is to vaccinate the maximum possible population. Thus, even if the disease occurs, it will be milder and possibly shorter, so those infected will be contagious for fewer days. Vaccinating the entire population has been and is essential, whatever Elon Musk says. In fact, it is a problem that there are low-income countries that are not reaching enough vaccines. Or that others, like China, have less effective vaccines. In fact, we are already seeing the consequences with its last big outbreaks.
Can vaccines be dangerous?
Any drug can carry risks. Precisely for this reason they are carried out clinical trials aimed at analyzing possible side effects and Calculate the benefit/risk balance.
In the case of vaccines, these controls are very strict, although it is true that they were not decades ago. In fact, it was because of a big mistake with the polio vaccine so today we can be a lot calmer when vaccinating.
In the 50s this was another big epidemic, which left sequels in millions of children around the world. It affects the nervous system and causes muscle atrophy or paralysis, leaving many affected with walking problems or undeveloped limbs, among other damage. In addition, in the worst case they could die from paralysis of the diaphragm.
Not surprisingly, the vaccine was received as a blessing. And it is true that he saved many children. However, it was started with such urgency that side effects were not taken into account. A very serious one went unnoticed for which, in the United States alone, 70,000 children presented headaches, neck stiffness, muscle weakness and fever. Also, 200 were permanently paralyzed and 10 died.
Perceiving this problem, the vaccine was withdrawn and replaced by another that no longer generated that effect. It was verified that, even in a hurry, carefully review possible side effectsTherefore, the action protocols were modified, so that, even in cases of emergency, they can be accelerated, but not bypass the procedures aimed at analyzing security.
Clinical trials consist of four phases. The first three are carried out in a controlled manner, before administering the drug to the entire population. Instead, the fourth consists of the patient monitoring once it is released to pharmacies and hospitals. This is something that has always been done, but to which we had not paid attention until the arrival of coronavirus vaccines. Basically, because we had never been so attentive to a clinical trial.
If side effects are detected that were not seen in the previous phases, it can even reach withdraw a drug Sometimes, they can even be withdrawn not because of side effects, but simply because they did not deliver what they promised in terms of effectiveness. It is something that is very controlled. But, in general, so many previous firewalls have been passed that if we can already receive a drug or vaccine we can be quite calm with its safety.
It is true that there may be side effects. Even a simple paracetamol he has them. In the case of coronavirus vaccines, much has been said about their cardiac effects. There are even studies aimed at analyzing them. However, these studies should be read in conjunction with those that conclude that cardiac effects are much more serious from passing the infection than from getting vaccinated. This is what makes the benefit/risk balance tip clearly for profit.
The Pandemix case
Something similar happened years ago with pandemrix, a flu vaccine that has been linked to several cases of narcolepsy. This led to reinforcing the studies in this regard, until it was concluded that, in reality, these cases could not be directly related to vaccination. Be that as it may, what we can affirm is that the protocols were carried out and, given suspicion, the situation was studied. If it had been considered serious, this vaccine would have been withdrawn, which is only administered in cases of pandemic flus.
Taking this into account, we cannot guarantee that it is safer to pass the disease than to get vaccinated, as could be deduced from the Elon Musk claims.
Does Elon Musk’s statement make sense at all?
There is only one reason why it may be safer to pass the disease than to get vaccinated. And it is that, with viruses that circulate numerous variantslike that of COVID-19, passing the infection can provide us with protection against variants for which vaccines do not protect us. But this has certain nuances that must be taken into account.
For starters, even vaccinating against one variant can protect to some extent against others. Maybe not as much as having passed the infection, but is not the same as not getting vaccinated. On the other hand, here you have to differentiate between getting vaccinated for the first time or getting several boosters.
Yes, it is true that, sometimes, if we have recently had the disease, may be unnecessary (but not dangerous) put on reinforcement if we are not at risk, since we have protection against a greater number of variants. It is precisely for this reason that with the latest reinforcements of COVID-19 more effort is being put into the risk people and for the rest it is being left as a personal decision. However, this occurs because the majority of the population is already vaccinated and the highly susceptible population is much smaller.
In short, if we have doubts about vaccines, regardless of the disease, Elon Musk’s comments in a tweet are undoubtedly not the best advice. Our family doctor will be the one to tell us if it is really recommended that we get vaccinated. But, in summary, there is something that we can assure: when it comes to vaccines, The remedy is not worse than the disease.