In one of the studies carried out by researchers at the University of Hong Kong, in collaboration with the World Health Organization, data from the most recent outbreaks in Hong Kong and Shanghai are analyzed. And the calculations are not encouraging: hospitals are expected to be overwhelmed soon, resulting in close to a million deaths in the next two months.
The impact could be worse if it is considered that these estimates include only deaths directly due to covid-19 disease; it does not take into account deaths associated with delays in the treatment of patients with other diseases.
The fourth dose, a salvation?
Deaths can be reduced by 35%, according to a study consulted by Nature, if 85% of people in China receive a fourth dose of the covid-19 vaccine. As long as enough antiviral drugs are administered to the elderly and with some vulnerability.
Another model estimates that 290,000 deaths could be prevented, between December and April, if measures such as vaccination, sanitary restrictions, and widespread use of face masks are taken.
The streets of major Chinese cities were eerily quiet on Sunday as people stayed home to protect themselves from a surge in Covid-19 cases that has hit urban centers from north to south.
China is in the first of three waves of COVID cases expected this winter, according to the country’s chief epidemiologist Wu Zunyou. There will be new ones as the population continues the tradition of returning to their places of origin for the Lunar New Year holidays next month.
China has not reported any Covid deaths since Dec. 7, when it abruptly ended most of the restrictions of a zero-tolerance Covid policy following unprecedented public protests. The strategy had been advocated by President Xi Jinping.
As part of the loosening of restrictions, mass testing for the virus has ended, casting doubt on whether official case numbers can reflect the full scale of the outbreak. China reported some 2,097 new symptomatic cases of covid infection on December 17.
Affects economic activities
In Beijing, the spread of the highly transmissible omicron variant has already affected services ranging from restaurants to package delivery.
Funeral homes and crematoriums in this city of 22 million people are also struggling to keep up with demand due to staff shortages and sick leave of workers and drivers.