NASA has perfected the technology to determine with much greater precision the possibility of impact with an asteroid that could approach our planet.
It has just activated a new-generation system, called Sentry-II, that can calculate the path of any asteroid detected by telescopes over the next century.
The new system predicts special cases of asteroids that until now were not covered by the previous asteroid prevention system, called Sentry.
By systematically calculating impact probabilities in this new way, NASA makes the new impact tracking system more robust.
This advantage allows astronomers to more confidently assess all potential impacts, even those with as low a probability of collision as one in 10 million.
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Previous problems
Previous problemsThe previous system, which has been operational for the past 20 years, was based on very clever math: In less than an hour, it could reliably obtain the probability of a newly discovered asteroid hitting it for the next 100 years.
One problem with the original Sentry system was that it could sometimes not accurately predict the probability of impact from some asteroids that experience extremely close encounters with Earth.
The motion of these NEAs is significantly deflected by our planet’s gravity, and post-encounter orbital uncertainties can grow dramatically. In those cases, the old Sentry’s calculations could fail, requiring manual intervention.
Sentry-II has no such limitation: it can quickly calculate the hit probabilities for all known Near Earth Objects (NEOs), stand out NASA in a statement.
Thousands of points
Thousands of pointsThe new algorithm models thousands of random points not bound by assumptions about how the uncertainty region might evolve. You then select random points throughout the uncertainty region.
The Sentry-II algorithm then asks: What are the possible orbits within the entire uncertainty region that could hit Earth?
This allows the Sentry-II to focus on very low probability impact scenarios, some of which the Sentry may have missed.
Technological advance is important because, in the last 20 years, the special cases studied were insignificant, but new observation tools are going to reveal special cases that we have not detected until now, so the new system must be able to include them. in your calculations.
Needle in a haystack
Needle in a haystackThe difference between the old nearby asteroid detection system and the current one can best be understood by looking for a needle in a haystack.
In this example, the needles are possible impact scenarios and the haystack is the region of uncertainty. The greater the uncertainty in the position of an asteroid, the larger the haystack.
The original Sentry would randomly poke through the haystack thousands of times looking for needles located near a single line that stretched through the haystack. Following this line was supposed to be the best way to search for needles.
However, Sentry-II doesn’t assume any lines and instead throws thousands of tiny random magnets all over the haystack, which quickly attract each other and then find nearby needles (asteroids with near-Earth orbits).
Be prepared
Be preparedWhen the consequences of a future asteroid impact are so large, it is worth finding even the smallest impact risk hidden in the data, NASA notes.
To date, nearly 28,000 near-Earth asteroids have been found by tracking telescopes that continuously scan the night sky. And every year they discover around 3,000 more asteroids.
But, as larger and more advanced telescopes accelerate the search over the next few years, a rapid increase in discoveries of these potential threats is expected.
Accurate follow-up
Accurate follow-upAlthough asteroids are extremely predictable because they obey the laws of physics and follow known orbital paths around the Sun, sometimes those paths can get very close to the future position of the Earth, a future impact on the Earth cannot always be completely ruled out. Earth.
Astronomers use sophisticated asteroid tracking software to automatically calculate the risk of impact. And the tools of observation are refined as telescopes enlarge the perception of the universe.