Despite the fact that it decreased, Pemex’s financial debt closed last year at 107.7 billion dollars. The oil company depends heavily on government support, although it said that in recent quarters it has not received such assistance.
However, Moody’s believes that the government will continue to finance Pemex’s cash needs, as well as help it meet its debt amortization payments of $4.6 billion in 2023, $10.9 billion next year and $4.9 billion in 2025.
“Given that the company’s underlying financial fundamentals are likely to continue to deteriorate in a business model no-change scenario, Moody’s anticipates that the next administration will find it increasingly difficult to replicate what has been observed in recent years,” he said.
In mid-2024, presidential elections will be held to choose the successor to President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who will take office at the end of that year. Morena, the government party, is emerging as the probable winner, according to various surveys.
On the other hand, Moody’s estimates that, given Pemex’s inability to invest large sums of capital in exploration and production, in 2023 and 2024 the company will maintain its production and reserves at current levels.
“Although a rating upgrade is unlikely in the short term, the outlook could return to stable thanks to the recovery of confidence in Pemex’s ability to implement a strategy that improves its financial and operating performance in the medium term,” the rating agency said.