The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) expects the Mexican economy to grow 3%, while Moody’s expects GDP to grow 1.0%. For inflation in 2023, the rating agency expects 4.7%, and the Mexican government that 2023 closes with an inflation of 3.2%.
“An underestimation of inflation and interest rates could complicate issues regarding the government’s interest burden, which would affect key issues and metrics for us from a sovereign perspective,” the executive said.
He stressed that the policy objectives and priorities of fiscal economic policy are strongly marked by support for i emblematic infrastructure and social programs that have promoted this administration, same that will continue towards the end of the current administration and that absorb more and more part of the Federal Expenditure Budget (PEF).
“In 2023 it will be more difficult to reach the prudent fiscal policy objectives, with the expectations that (Treasury) brings in the criteria,” considered the sovereign analyst for Mexico.
more debt
For the following year, the government plans an increase in the public debt of 30%, which will represent an expense of 1.2 billion pesos.
This will complicate the stability of debt-to-GDP metrics, as it can increase the interest burden versus income.
“What we see is that it will be more complicated in the coming years to maintain the stability of the debt-GDP ratio,” Merino said.