These are critical and complex times. Against that, it is quite seductive to know who is going to predict the next economic catastrophe. However, no one today can guarantee that the recession will take place.
The recession in the United States is still unknown. According to the eyes of analysts and economists, if this occurs it will be recorded in 2023, not as long and deep. But what no one doubts is that everything that is happening has to do with a change in the trend in globalization, with certain nationalist overtones, which will give way to low economic growth, more poverty and more hunger. Deglobalization.
The world is no longer the same as before.
China’s economy has slowed. Its zero COVID policy, with its lockdowns, has had a strong impact on its own economy, but also on the global one with disruptions to supply chains. However, it is far from being in a recessive environment. It is a highly centralized, resilient economy that maintains its growth.
Europe is recovering but its involvement with Eastern Europe, where the conflict between Ukraine and Russia is stationed, can put the productive sector in trouble, particularly countries like Germany, one of the most important economic engines of the continent.
In the entire region, a rearrangement in the energy markets is taking place and, if the armed conflict intensifies and continues, beware, the economic environment could break down.
In the United States, the labor market and the economy in general have also slowed down and the spending capacity of families has already begun to decline. Thus, it is already anticipated that the US economy will grow less; it is estimated that in 2022 it will grow +- 2.6% and 2.1% for 2023.
With its nuances, experts forecast bad weather for 2023.
“Inflationary pressures may continue or be exacerbated by conflicts and that may lead the Fed to take a much more restrictive stance,” says Adrián de la Garza, chief economist and director of Economic Studies at Citibanamex. “In that scenario we still think it’s tight, complicated, we don’t see a soft landing, but an implementation of monetary policy that would allow the Fed to gradually stop inflationary pressures without leading the economy into a recession, although it does lead to fairly moderate growth.
“The pendulum swung and now there is talk of very high inflation that will force the Central Banks to raise rates and that can put us into a recession,” says Sergio Luna, an economist at UNAM and the University of London. “It is an effect of wealth linked to financial conditions and yes, indeed, it can lead to the American economy slowing down, not immediately, the risk is more towards 2023.”
“Yes, there can be a recession in the United States, but a very slight one, nothing to do with the 2020 recession, which was short and very deep,” adds Gabriela Siller, director of Economic Analysis at Grupo Financiero BASE.
In Mexico, the export sector is its main economic engine. Consumption recovered but it seems difficult to sustain it. Investment continues to collapse, with a gradual but highly volatile recovery. The global panorama can complicate the conditions in the internal market. According to analyst estimates, the average growth for Mexico in 2022 would be 1.8%; quite low and insufficient.