Few foods and products are released in our shopping basket from being splashed by inflation accumulated, where the invasion of Ukraine by Russia may put an even greater burden on the national economy.
About Ukraine, known as the breadbasket of Europe, we already told you a few days ago what the direct consequences of a war there could be on the economy. We are not just talking about transportation difficulties, but also from the risk of a war of attrition that involves assigning troops to the military front.
The mobilization of civilians for the active reserve on the Ukrainian side would also mean depopulate rural areas and remove labor from the fields. In addition, the Ukrainian geography also conditions this cereal production, concentrated in the eastern part of the country —where the fiercest fighting is taking place now and where there are higher rates of pro-Russian population—. It is not only that there will be fewer workers in the field, but also that the most fertile areas dedicated to cereal They are in the area hardest hit by the war.
In that same sense, referring to Ukraine as the breadbasket of Europe is not a cliche. We are talking about the world’s fourth largest producer of barley (with about 10 million tons); the world’s second largest producer of sunflower seeds (around 15 million tons, only behind Russia); the sixth producer of wheat (about 30 million metric tons), and also the sixth largest producer of corn (also around 30 million tons), doubling the amount of corn that countries like Russia or France produce.
To get an idea: in 2021, Ukraine was the first importer of corn to the European Union, while Russia —followed by Ukraine— was the first importer of wheat, as explained from agribusiness.
Sunflower oil
Transferred to our markets and supermarkets, the accounts can be clear. have already seen each other posters of restrictions on the purchase of sunflower oil in certain supermarkets such as Mercadona or Consum, but it is not only about the household shopping basket.
The reality is that professional kitchens and a good part of the industry, especially the aperitif industry, It works mainly with sunflower oil for its fried foods, therefore, shortages or having to resort to other markets will mean an increase in cost that will be passed on to the consumer.
An added problem that could also be aggravated in other products related to sunflower oil. Is he case of preserves made with it and even very everyday products such as mayonnaise, since it is also common in the industry to resort to sunflower oil. To a lesser extent, although also affected, we should talk about snacks as common as the sunflower seeds themselves.
Also, of course, a increased demand for olive oil and its consequent rise in price, whether extra virgin or olive pomace oil, would be quite feasible due to the reduction in sunflower oil.
Meat, cheese and animal derivatives
Most of the corn produced in the world is intended for animal feed, either raw or after different treatments in the form of feed. Both the poultry industry such as beef and pork in our country depend heavily on Ukrainian corn to feed livestock.
In this way, it is plausible that the price of meat also becomes more expensive if producers have to resort to corn further afield (The only European country present in the top 10 corn producers is France, with about 12 million metric tons —less than half that of Ukraine—) which can come from the United States, China, Brazil or Argentina.
To provide a piece of information, of the almost 14 million tons of corn that Spain consumes annually, 11.3 million are intended for animal feed and, of those 14 million, 9.5 million depend on exporters. As well Most of the barley consumed in Spain is used for animal feed (around 90%), but in this case we are a self-sufficient country when it comes to barley.
Bread, pastries and pastries
Contrary to what we might think, Spain is a country that is not in the top 5 of wheat producers worldwide. Despite the fame of the Castilian fields, in Spain barely eight million tons of wheat are produced, which It even places us outside the top 20 producers worldwide.
Although Ukraine and Russia do not top this list either (they are seventh and third, respectively), the reality is that they also we depend on wheat from eastern Europe for making bread, pastries, confectionery and all kinds of sweets. Not surprisingly, Ukraine is, according to sources from the Ministry of Agriculture, our second largest partner in grain imports.
In the opposite case to corn, with common wheat, Spain is more self-sufficient, according to ministerial sources. Last year, with a consumption of about 10 million metric tons of wheat, seven corresponded to own production and only three responded to imports. Still, most of the common wheat we produce is also used for animal feed.
Beer
Although we have seen that Spain is a independent country as far as barley production is concerned, main source of brewing, the reality is that it can also be an item that also rises in price on our shopping list.
Added to the increase in the price of fuel and electricity, which also end up having an impact on the final consumer, would be the increase in imports of barley or a decrease in reserves, either because it is exported at a better price as animal feed or to dedicate to other secondary industries. In any case, to date, Spain is self-sufficient in terms of barley production. Case similar to the one that occupies Germany or France, also at the forefront in the production of this cereal.
Images | istock
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