Iraq hosts this Saturday a regional conference with important figures from the Middle East, with all eyes on the situation in Afghanistan after the return of the Taliban and the attack in Kabul.
The Baghdad conference was initially organized to “defuse” tensions between the two major regional powers, Shiite Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, according to an adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al Kazimi.
Participants include the Iranian and Saudi Foreign Ministers, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al Sisi, Jordan’s King Abdullah II and French President Emmanuel Macron. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was invited, but his presence is not confirmed.
But the discussions will overwhelm the Middle East region, especially after the return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the attack by a branch of the Islamic State group at the Kabul airport, which caused at least 85 deaths, including 13 American soldiers.
– ‘Essential for regional stability’ –
The situation between the two countries is very different now, but four years ago, the Iraqi army was still fighting backed by an international coalition against IS, which would be defeated at the end of 2017.
Now, its jihadist cells carry out specific attacks. The group’s latest major suicide bombing claimed more than 30 deaths in Baghdad in July.
ISIS “still has tens of millions of dollars and is undoubtedly going to continue to reestablish its networks in Iraq and Syria,” says Colin Clarke, research director at the Soufan Center, a New York-based geopolitics center.
President Macron, who wants to show that France still has a role in the region, seeks to support Iraq, “a central country, essential in the stability of the Middle East,” Elisha explained.
Events such as the Taliban victory or the Kabul attack “show that it is urgent to support more than ever the political process under way in Iraq (…) Without a stable, sovereign and prosperous Iraq there will be no solution to the security threats in the region “he added.
On his 48-hour trip to Iraq, Macron will travel to Mosul, symbol of the victory against the Islamic State that occupied that city between 2014 and 2017 and proclaimed its caliphate from there.
– IS spurred on? –
Although the IS is a “sworn enemy” of the Taliban, what happened in Afghanistan can “spur” the jihadist group and push it to “show that it is still very present in Iraq,” says Rasha al Aqeedi, a researcher at the Newlines Institute in the United States.
There are still 2,500 US troops in Iraq, who from 2022 will be limited to serving as “advisers” to local security forces.
For Al Aqeedi, although the level of the Iraqi army “is not ideal”, “the Americans think it is enough for them to leave Iraq without fearing that the country will relive what happened in 2014”, when his troops succumbed to the jihadists.
Iraq also has numerous controversial pro-Iranian paramilitary factions integrated into Hash al Shaabi, an organization created to support the army’s fight against Sunni IS.
Since then, this coalition has been integrated into the state, but its detractors accuse it of responding only to Tehran and of murdering and kidnapping dissidents.
Iraq’s relations with its Iranian neighbor must also be addressed at the summit, as well as Tehran’s tensions with Riyadh.
Baghdad has hosted closed-door meetings between representatives of the two regional powers in recent months.
Now, the goal is to move from the status of “messenger” to that of “leader,” says researcher Renad Mansur of Chatham House.
bur-gde-leb / vl / dbh / lm