Despite the growth of what was approved above 2023, spending on subsidies will be concentrated in Senior Pensions, leaving other sectors such as education, health or security neglected.
Concentrated resources
An analysis carried out by México Evalúa considers that spending on subsidies will have a strong electoral component next year, since of the total of 1.1 trillion pesos, 465,000 million will be for the Pension program for the Well-being of the Elderly, which It represents 41.8% of subsidies, and a growth of 871% compared to 2018.
“Never in history has a program reached such concentration. At the same time, the rest of the programs, even those considered priorities, will remain stagnant,” the document states.
The commitment to increasing only welfare pensions, at the cost of punishing other programs, will exacerbate the regressivity of social policy. The universal nature of this program means that resources reach not only the most needy people, but also the highest income deciles, which reduces the capacity of social policy to reduce poverty and inequality.
Seen another way, at the end of the six-year term, spending on subsidies dedicated to agriculture, police corporations, science and technology, education, environmental protection, culture, health or housing will be much lower than that observed in 2018. Likewise, for the first time Once in 2024, spending on budgeted subsidies (1.1 trillion) will be greater than physical investment (889,000 million).
Giving priority to a single subsidy program has had a high cost: the rest of the programs and spending functions will remain stagnant before 2023, and before the end of the last six-year term. The vast majority show a decline.
México Evalúa highlights that, of the 72 programs approved in 2024, only six will have increases of more than 10%, not counting the Pension for Seniors. An increase of 64% (592 million) stands out in the Medical Care program, 37% (240 million) in Prevention and Control of Overweight, Obesity and Diabetes, or 31% (194 million) in the Epidemiological Surveillance program.
On the contrary, there is a cut of 71% (928 million) in the National Reconstruction Program, 36% (2.5 billion) in the Urban Improvement Program and 27% (980 million) in the Drinking Water, Drainage and Treatment. On the other hand, there are 55 that will only have a nominal increase, to maintain the same resources as in 2023; That is, they will have 0% real growth for the following year.
In addition, none of the other priority programs of the current government will have increases for 2024.
For example, the Benito Juárez Scholarship program for Basic Education (which, by the way, is quite progressive) will have 36,600 billion in 2024, the same amount as in 2024. The Benito Juárez Scholarships for Secondary Education will have 39,400 million, which Same as this year. The School is Ours will maintain its budget at 28.8 billion, and Sembrando Vida will keep 38.9 billion, the same as in 2023.