The question of whether the inflationary pressure is temporary does not seem to be fully resolved. Added to this bag of doubts is the controversy among several economists about whether we are seeing the beginning of a supercycle in raw materials, something not seen since 2000 when Chinese industrialization dynamited the negotiation of raw materials above their long-term prices , or if it is solely the result of an offer that has not caught up with the level of demand.
The truth is that, for now, the Bloomberg Commodities Index, which groups a basket of 23 raw materials, registers a rise of 30% to 99.6 dollars, its highest level since June 2015.
“They are going to be good years for commodities,” predicts Ana Azuara, analyst at the Banco Base financial institution. Although production catches up with demand, the specialist considers that there are factors that drive the prices of raw materials, such as climate change, the energy transition and the infrastructure plan.
This pressure is reflected in the price of several indexes and exchange-traded funds that include commodities in their belly. An example is the CORN ETF, which tracks an index that groups corn futures contracts and has returned 24.20% so far this year.
“In recent weeks, the prices of some raw materials have partially decreased, but there are certain cases where the products are not normalized, such as corn, due to climatic factors,” says Alejandro Saldaña, an analyst at Banco Ve Por Más. “Probably this product and other farmers have this pressure ”, he adds.
Estimates of rise in commodities are not limited to the agricultural sector. Analysts estimate that raw materials such as wood and metals will continue their upward trajectory this year.
For Saldaña, this forecast is supported by the plan of developed countries to transition from fossil to renewable energies in a period of less than 30 years, as well as the injections of fresh money to develop infrastructure, generating “significant demand.”
According to estimates by the World Bank, the price of oil will be around 56 dollars a barrel on average. For metals, an increase of 30% is expected, while for agricultural products an increase of almost 14% is forecast.
This is reflected in the WOOD ETF, which contains wood, agricultural and paper producers, which accumulates a growth of 10.37%, as well as in the Invesco DB Base Metal fund, which has grown 19.94% so far this year. .
“Until this structural change is over, the price will continue to rise more moderately. Maybe we will not see these exaggerated increases, but obviously they are expected to continue to rise ”, predicts Azuara.