Mexico’s trade surplus fell 86% in June of this year compared to the same month of 2020, going from 5.536 million dollars (million dollars) to just 762 million dollars.
The result is due to the 52% rise in total imports, within which purchases of gasoline and butane and propane gas soared 244%, while those of non-oil consumer goods rose 71% in the reference period, he explained. the Inegi.
After the stoppage of activities that occurred to avoid curbing the contagion of the coronavirus, supply has recovered faster than demand, which has resulted in an increase in prices, the analysts consulted agreed.
The reactivation of economic activities and the stoppage of mobility restrictions translated into an increase in the import of fuels, as well as certain types of consumer goods such as cell phones, computers and furniture, explained Gómez Ayala.
From January to June of this year, 33.8 million passengers traveled by plane, a figure higher than the 25.6 million in the same period last year, according to data from the Ministry of Communications and Transportation (SCT).
“This type of reactivation, although it continues slow and is not going to regain pre-pandemic levels in the next two years, implies some progress,” said the ITAM professor.
Regarding exports, the sale of certain fruits and vegetables to the United States represents upward pressure for inflation in Mexico, according to Banco de México (Banxico).
“If demand in the United States grows too high, local producers will want to direct all their products to international markets; and the surplus they have, or whatever is left for the national market. As domestic demand is not covered, what happens is an upward pressure on prices, ”explained Carlos Alberto Jiménez.
With the increase in demand for goods and services comes an increase in prices.
“One of the measures that is recommended in the economy to curb inflation is to reduce employment or increase unemployment,” said Professor de La Salle.
In Mexico, the current policy aims at greater consumption by families to guide the recovery and inflation is not viewed in a negative way and allows economic growth based on the growth of wages, ”he added.
For inflation to return to the Banxico range (3% +/- one percentage point) it will depend on the absence of new confinements due to the pandemic and on the recovery of the production level. “It is a structural issue but a conjunctural issue, so we do not see that it takes more than 12 months for inflation to return to its course”, anticipated Jiménez Bandala de La Salle.