Experts pointed to a “longer-lasting virus-induced drag on virus-sensitive consumer services,” as well as the expectation that semiconductor supply will likely not improve until the first half of 2022, delaying restocking until next year.
In addition to the negative impact caused by the virus in the short term, spending on some services and nondurable goods is expected to remain below pre-pandemic trends, especially “if a shift to remote work results in some workers spending less on general”.
Goldman cut its GDP estimates for the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 from 5% to 4.5% and lowered its forecast for the second quarter of 2022 from 4.5% to 4%, while reducing its expectation for the third quarter from 3.5 % to 3%.
However, it increased its estimate for the fourth quarter of 2022 to 1.75% from 1.5%.