The war in Ukraine cast a long energetic shadow over the European Union. The severance of diplomatic, economic and political relations with Russia left numerous states dependent on its gas supply exposed. Sanctions and confrontation was permissible in the summer. But what would happen when winter came and temperatures began to plummet?
Turns out nothing.
The data. The Reuters real-time report illustrates it: the European Union has barely spent 17% of its gas reserves since the beginning of winter. The tanks are still 83% full, a placid and comfortable situation that is far from the catastrophic scenario imagined months ago. Germany, the most vulnerable country of all the great states of the Union, has barely burned 12% of gas stored during the final stretch of 2022.
The reason. It is enough to go outside to find out: it is hot. We live one of the warmest Christmases of all our lives. In Spain, the thermometers have exceeded 20ºC in some parts of the country, while in Europe the heating season, whose informal inauguration dates back to October 20 every year, has been delayed due to the wave of good temperatures.
The rest of the continent lives similar situations. It’s a bit cold. General Winter has been nothing more than a discreet soldier this year, which has made it possible to maintain the level of reserves above the average of previous years.
Prices. The cost of energy has been the other great nightmare of European governments in 2022. In Spain, the warmth of winter has helped to neutralize it. Last week the lowest energy price was reached since before the pandemic (€6.02/MWh), as a result of the high temperatures and low demand, the large gas reserves stored during the autumn and the recovery of hydroelectric power thanks to some easing of the drought. In Europe, although in a less extreme way, the cost of gas has also dropped a lot.
reservations, key. Along with the heat, the rapid provisioning of reserves during the autumn months has facilitated the current relaxation. At the beginning of October Spain had its tanks at 99%. The Union had proposed to arrive in November with all its reserves at 80%. Most states had already met their target in October, although that figure was conditioned by low summer demand. In October the forecasts were equally positive, sinking the price up to 70%.
How? Europe thus went from great scarcity to great abundance, a situation that it has maintained thanks to a very mild winter. Several factors operate in this feint against the energy crisis, including supply from other countries (the United States and Spanish regasification companies, among others; but also questionable partners such as Qatar) and the support of alternative energy sources. But it is not complete: as we saw a few weeks ago, Europe continues to import a lot of Russian LNG. Very much.
So much so that Russia continues to be the second exporter to the Union. Natural gas may be history, but liquefied natural gas is still central to the European economy. And there the dependence on Moscow has not only been reduced but has worsened. The crisis has abated… But it has not completely evaporated.
Picture: anton romanko