But the progress has not been enough: the country, which for years has depended on fuel imports, continues to make large purchases of gasoline abroad, according to data reported by the state-owned Pemex, the Ministry of Energy and other agencies.
In 2018 – the last year of the PRI six-year term – of the total gasoline purchased in the country, 79% came from abroad, mainly from the United States. So far this year, and with greater utilization of Pemex’s refining complexes, the percentage has been reduced to 63.4%. Despite this, as the data show, the majority of gasoline is still brought from abroad, in a mix between what Pemex imports and the private companies that participate in the market.
The presidential promise is to end gasoline imports next year. This would imply taking the Pemex complexes to almost triple current production. So far this year, refineries have reported an average production of 271,000 barrels of gasoline per day and to complete national consumption, about 492,000 barrels per day are imported. The president has not clarified what will happen to imports made by private participants and whether these will continue as part of the objective of achieving so-called self-sufficiency.
Pemex refineries have made progress in gasoline production, but the pace is still slow. In five years, fuel production at the six Pemex complexes – excluding Deer Park – increased by 31%. This percentage is obtained by comparing the production of 2018 and that registered so far this year. But although the progress has been significant, this has only involved the production of just over 60,000 barrels of gasoline per day.
The plan to get Mexico to end gasoline purchases abroad cannot include Deer Park. The refinery, which Pemex bought from Shell a few years ago, so far sends less than 10% of its production to Mexico. As explained by sources from the state company, the complex has long-term commitments and contracts that were signed by Shell before the acquisition, which prevents more of its production from being destined for the country.
So it is that the presidential formula includes adding what was produced at the Dos Bocas refinery in the count to achieve the objective. The start of production in Tabasco was announced last Friday, but the complex, whose official name is Olmeca, does not yet produce commercial grade gasoline that can be sold in the short term on the market. According to figures from the latest government report, the complex will refine 290,000 barrels of fuel per day at the end of this year, but analysts foresee it being complicated.
This, they explain, would mean that more than 80% of the crude oil processed in Dos Bocas is converted into fuel. A task that seems difficult for a complex that has not yet begun formal operations and that also uses heavy crude oil – a mixture that regularly results in a lower percentage of high-value gasoline compared to light oil.
Time is short and although Dos Bocas manages to advance as promised, the numbers do not achieve the objective. In the best scenario, in which the promises of the Moreno government were fulfilled, Dos Bocas would produce 170,000 barrels of gasoline per day. This is just 35% of current gasoline imports. The remainder should be produced by the state company’s current refineries, mainly by Tula and Salina Cruz where coking plants are currently being built to transform fuel oil – Pemex’s main product into gasoline – and one year, analysts say, is a very long period. short to achieve the goal.
Pemex’s six refineries currently operate at 42% of their capacity. Achieving the presidential objective would imply taking them up to 85%. “How can you be self-sufficient, even if you reconfigure the refineries, if demand is not expected to decrease in the next 10 years? We are going to continue to matter, whether we want to or not. If in the last five years refinery processing has increased by less than 10%, it is difficult for it to increase by 35% in one year,” says Ramses Pech, a sector analyst.