This is a lower rate than last quarter (6.3%). Analysts consulted by AFP predicted a greater slowdown (4.3%).
The real estate sector, which has long accounted for a quarter of China’s GDP, is experiencing serious turbulence after two decades of breakneck growth.
The financial problems of large developers, such as Evergrande and Country Garden, generate distrust among buyers, in a context of unfinished constructions and falling prices per square meter.
However, some economic indicators recovered.
Retail sales, the main indicator of household consumption, registered a strong acceleration in September (5.5% annually), according to ONE.
This figure far exceeds that of August (4.6%) and the expectations of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg (4.9%). A holiday in late September for a national holiday helped spur spending on tourism and other services.
Cautious households
“The Chinese economy is beginning to show signs of stabilization after a series of stimulus measures, especially in consumption,” said economist Ken Cheung of the Japanese bank Mizuho.
However, households continue to be cautious in their spending, with amounts even lower than before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Industrial production maintained its trend of the previous month in September (4.5%). The unemployment rate, which in China is only calculated for city dwellers and only gives a partial picture of the labor market, fell 5% in September (compared to 5.2% in August).
The unemployment rate among 16- to 24-year-olds, which had reached an all-time high of 21.3% in June, has not been published since.
The investment rate in fixed assets was 3.1% at the end of September (3.2% in August) and investments in the real estate sector contracted 9.1% year-on-year, in the period from January to September.
China is aiming for growth “around 5%” this year, a goal that could be difficult to achieve without a massive stimulus plan, according to some economists.
“Stronger measures” will be needed, says analyst Gene Ma of the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
Last year, the Asian giant’s GDP grew 3%, one of the weakest rates in four decades.
“The worst is over but the economic recovery remains plagued by difficulties,” especially in the real estate sector, warned Larry Hu of the Macquarie investment bank.
Country Garden, one of the main players in the sector, could go into receivership this Wednesday.