He impact of generative AI in the labor market It would be more significant than we thought. In accordance with a Goldman Sachs investigationartificial intelligence systems such as ChatGPT or Midjourney would affect 300 million jobs worldwide. According to the report, a quarter of the work done in the United States and the European Union will be automated.
Goldman Sachs believes that most people will witness how AI automates half your workload. In theory, this would be good news, as the user would spend the remaining time on more productive activities. Although the banking group believes that most people will continue in their jobs, the reality would be different.
Reduced work hours due to AI will cause some jobs to become redundant. Goldman estimates that 7% of workers in the United States would be replaced. In Europe the figures are not very encouraging and It is thought that 24% of jobs can be automated.
The research, led by Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani, suggests that if generative AI were widely deployed, it would trigger a productivity boom. This phenomenon would increase annual gross domestic product by 7 percent for a decade Worldwide. Estimates are made considering that the technology meets the promised capabilities.
Which jobs will be most affected by AI?
According to the researchers, the impact of AI will occur to varying degrees, depending on the occupation. The Administrative workers are the most likely to be affected by technology, since 46% of their tasks could be automated. They are followed by lawyers, with 44%, and engineers and architects with 37%. In the same group are scientists, with 36%, and those who carry out commercial and financial activities, with 35%.
The report mentions that developed markets are more exposed to automation than those with emerging economies. According to Goldman Sachs, countries like The United States, Hong Kong, Israel, Japan and Sweden will be the most affected. In contrast, Nigeria, Vietnam, Kenya and India are among the least likely, as are mainland Chinese employees.
“The impact of AI will ultimately depend on its capacity and adoption schedule”
Goldman Sachs
The employees less likely to be replaced by an AI like ChatGPT will be those who dedicate themselves to the cleaning and maintenance of buildings. Bricklayers, electricians, or plumbers doing installation, maintenance, and repair work can breathe easy. The construction and extraction industry considers that only 6% of its activities could be automated.
ChatGPT and the possibility of a dystopian future
The Goldman Sachs report comes just days after an investigation carried out by OpenAI in which they measured the possible impact of AI on the labor market. A document, which can be consulted for free, details how models like ChatGPT would affect various professions. Jobs like accountant, financial analyst, editor or web designer, they could become a thing of the past.
Some specific jobs such as an interpreter, translator or creative writer reach an alarming percentage in exposure to models like ChatGPT. While AI can help reduce tasks in these areas by 50%, OpenAI considers that the technology is not capable of automating all functions. The company does not think of a future where AI will replace us, at least not in the short term.
We may see a phenomenon similar to that of manufacturing employees during the 1980s. Both the Goldman Sachs report and the OpenAI report mention the creation of new positions, such as that of prompt engineers who specialize in taking advantage of AI through concise and direct instructions.