Bitcoin (BTC) is now further than ever from its target price according to the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.
The latest data shows that the BTC/USD pair has deviated from predicted price growth to an extent never seen before.
Stock-to-Flow sets a grim new record
With the BTC price suppression underway in light of the FTX scandal, an already downtrend has only become stronger.
This has implications for many core aspects of the Bitcoin network, especially the miners, but some of its best-known metrics are also feeling the heat.
Among them is S2F, which is seeing its price forecasts come under increasing, and already critical, pressure.
Enjoying great popularity until Bitcoin’s latest all-time high in November 2021, The model uses halving block subsidy events as a central element to plot exponential price growth over the years.
The S2F allows for significant price deviations and is not “just bullish”, but even allowing for this, the current targets are much higher than the spot price.
Based on dedicated tracking resource S2F MultipleBitcoin should be trading at just over $72,000 on November 19, which is a multiple of -1.47.
On November 10, the multiple reached -1.5—a record negative reading in the life of S2F—as the FTX shock hit the market.
PlanB: “It seems that the world has ended”
An alternate iteration of the S2F model deviation from analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin produced similar conclusions about this month’s price action.
“The price has now drifted below the S2F line more than ever before”wrote its creator, Philip Swift, in part of a Twitter post who accompanied him
“Currently a variance of -1.26 vs. the previous all-time low of -1.21 back in 2011.”
Yet PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst responsible for creating—and now defending—S2F, remains cold on its usefulness.
“The world seems to have ended, but FTX will probably be no more than a blip on the radar in the long run”, plot in his own tweet.
PlanB has received increasingly strong allegations about the 2022 model, including claims that its foundation is fraudulent.
In response to the increasing deviation between the target price and the spot price, he argued that even a comparatively wide range for the price to act on and still maintain the validity of the model was still more useful than no idea at all.
Points of view and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. All investments and trades involve risk, so you should do your own research when making your decision.
Investments in crypto assets are not regulated. They may not be suitable for retail investors and the entire amount invested may be lost. The services or products offered are not directed or accessible to investors in Spain.