At the end of 2021, Bolsonaro bottomed out in voting intentions.
His popularity had sunk due to his criticized management of the coronavirus pandemic, which had already left more than 620,000 dead, soaring inflation, the growth of poverty and the 12 million unemployed.
In mid-December, the Datafolha institute gave the former leftist president 48% of the voting intentions in the first round of October 2. To Bolsonaro, 22%.
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Since then, in all polls, regardless of their methodology, the 67-year-old former Army captain has picked up a lot of momentum.
And in the south, southeast and center-west regions, with almost 100 million voters – about three-quarters of the electorate – both appeared tied, with the margin of error, in the first round.
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“Partly due to the withdrawal of former judge Sergio Moro (…) These voters were called to position themselves for candidates with greater ideological affinity,” explains Geraldo Monteiro, professor of Political Science at the University of the State of Rio de Janeiro ( UERJ).
It is also explained by “the great competition” with which Bolsonaro “maintains and feeds the polarization in Brazil.” He regularly “keeps his voters galvanized,” launching “new fights” against the Supreme Court or governors, he adds.