The forecast for the next two decades is that Latin America concentrate 5% of the deliveries, with around 2,880 new aircraft. Short- and medium-range aircraft would be the fastest growing, a segment led by the 737 MAX team, which is operated in the country by Aeroméxico.
“Mexico has a very large domestic market, there are probably several opportunities to serve particularly the secondary markets connecting, say, one of the northern states of the United States to a secondary city in Mexico, to transport people for their vacations or for them to visit friends and relatives”, explains the specialist to Expansion.
The North American market – made up of United States and Canada– would concentrate most of the new deliveries, with 23% of the total. Europe, Asia (excluding China) and China would account for 21% of new deliveries each, with strong growth expected particularly in Chinawhich would have a larger fleet than the European region.
60% of the aircraft in Boeing’s forecast represent growth, while remaining 40% are replacement aircraftan industry practice to reduce operating costs, such as fuel.
Part of the growth is determined by people’s intention to travel, which is linked to the level of GDP per capita of each country: the higher the income, the more propensity there is to travel.
For segments like the cargo planesthis is a factor that is added to others such as the growth of industrial production and trade, for which a more moderate growth is estimated in this segment, mainly focused on single-aisle aircraft for the Latin American region.
“For the capabilities of the airlines in the region, it is a good option. The 747 works for operations from Asia, with large volumes; in Latin America there are some markets that support wide-body aircraft, but rather we think that we will see more airlines express transporting small packages, coming from the United States with amazonfor example, or from Brazil with Free market. Small shipments that go from the warehouses to the consumer”, says Franson.
The demand for more aircraft will also mean the need for a larger crew, which translates into a forecast of 118,000 additional workers for Latin America by 2040, mainly cabin crew (48,000), pilots (35,000) and technicians (35,000).