Bitcoin (BTC) may already be starting its new macro uptrend if historical “hodl” habits are repeated.
That was the conclusion of the investigation of the latest data that cover the amount of idle BTC supply for a year or more as of July 2022.
BTC hodls hint that the bear market is over
According to independent analyst Miles Johal, who uploaded the findings to social media on July 29, a “rounded top” formation in BTC “hodl” is completing.
Once it does, price should react, just like it has on multiple occasions before.
The clue lies in Bitcoin’s HODL Waves metric, which breaks down the supply based on the last movement of each bitcoin. A year or more ago, the one-year HODL wave currently reflects most of the supply.
Johal’s accompanying chart shows that the higher the share of overall supply stationary for at least a year, the closer the BTC/USD pair is to a macroeconomic bottom.
More importantly, however, a slowdown of the one-year HODL wave, signaling that the accumulation is calming down, followed by the start of a reversal, has always occurred at the start of a new bullish price uptrend. Long-term BTC.
This “rounded top” chart phenomenon is being highly regarded as a potential source of hope with Bitcoin already making up lost ground.
In the comments, Johal argued that few had been paying attention to HODL Waves.
Foreign exchange balances are the lowest since 2018
Meanwhile, separate data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlighted the current trend of bitcoins leaving exchanges.
BTC in exchange wallets now make up just 12.6% of the total supply, down 4.6% from the total supply since the March 2020 crash, the staff noted.
#bitcoin balance on exchanges continues its macro decline, reaching 12.6% of the Circulating Supply (2.4M $BTC).
Exchange balances have now seen a macro outflow of over 4.6% of the circulating supply since the March 2020 ATH.
Live Chart: https://t.co/zJnfaG05zt pic.twitter.com/vhKCudqGUr
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 29, 2022
In BTC terms, the figure is 2.4 million BTC now compared to 3.15 million BTC in March 2020. The figure is the lowest since July 2018.
Earlier this month, Cointelegraph reported on the accelerating trend of removing coins from exchanges.
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