For the fourth time in just over two years, a Chinese rocket is about to make an uncontrolled landing on Earth. The experts appeal to the population for calm, assuring that, by probability, should drop in uninhabited areas. However, they also show their displeasure at what appears to be a great lack of interest on the part of the China National Space Administration.
And it is that, unlike other rockets, in which the place of their re-entry is controlled or even recycled, the Long March 5B they are left to fend for themselves after releasing their payload. On this occasion, said load has been the third phase of the Chinese space agency, Tiangongwhich was successfully launched last Monday.
Now, what remains of the Chinese rocket, with 23 tons of mass and the size of a 10 story buildingHe prepares to return to Earth. Much of it will disintegrate as it passes through the atmosphere. Nevertheless, as explained to Insider Aerospace Corporation expertsbetween 20% and 40% of its mass could survive the fall.
The new uncertain fate of a Chinese rocket
In 2020, the remains of another Chinese rocket fell into a inhabited area of Ivory Coast, damaging some buildings. Later in 2021, another landed on the Indian Ocean, near the Maldives. In addition, this same 2022, in July, what remained of a Long March 5B made landfall with fragments in Malaysia and Indonesia. And also in the ocean, near Philippines.
On this occasion, as then, it is not yet known exactly where the remains will fall. The location will become more precise as the landing approaches, which will probably take place this weekend. At the moment, however, the probable landing region is so extensive that it includes the 88% of the world’s population. Fortunately, this population is concentrated in very few areas, so it would possibly fall into the ocean or uninhabited land areas. Now, the situation is generating a lot of tensions, not only with China. Also with any other space agency that may leave space debris wandering in space.
And it is that, according to a study published this year in Nature, in just 10 years there will be a 10% chance that a piece of space junk could fall on someone. It’s not just some Chinese rocket. They could be remnants of satellites or other dislodged vehicles whose reentry is not controlled. Said control it is very expensiveso, as explained in that study, it would be much more profitable for the agencies to pay compensation in the unlikely event that it reached a human being.
Let’s hope that’s not the case this weekend. As the landing site becomes better known, measures could be taken if it is a densely populated area. However, it is expected that this is not necessary. As always, alertness is necessary, but without panicking.