The Earth has never warmed as much as in 2023. Last year’s records were so high that already in October scientists declared that the year would close as the hottest in history. By then, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimated that the average temperature of the planet it was already close to 1.40 °C above the pre-industrial era. But just as they told us about this record, they already warn us of the following forecast: 2024 could be even worse.
This year could be the first time that the global average temperature momentarily exceeds 1.5 °C. Britain’s Met Office estimates that the average global temperature will be between 1.34 °C and 1.58 °C in 2024. The forecast is in line with the current global warming trend of 0.2°C per decade.
The 1.5°C limit is the fundamental basis of the 2015 Paris Agreement, in which almost all nations in the world committed to taking action to curb the level of global warming. Once this threshold is exceeded, experts warn that the consequences of climate change, which populations around the world are already suffering, will be much more difficult to control. If 2024 does, in fact, become the hottest year in history, the projections are not at all favorable.
That the average global temperature is exceeded in a single year does not necessarily mean that the planet will cross this limit in the long term, but it is a clear sign that we are on our way. A report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the most relevant UN body on the subject, reported last year that the Earth would reach this critical threshold during the next decade. However, more recent research assures that this could occur around 2029.
El Niño could make 2024 the hottest year in history
Two key factors determine the forecast for 2024 as the hottest year in history. On the one hand, emissions of polluting gases continue to rise. The preliminary report of the Global Carbon Budget estimates that 2023 would close with about 40.9 billion tons of CO₂ emissions. It would be an increase of 1.1% compared to 2022.
And there is El Niño, which has not yet peaked. It is a climatic phenomenon of natural origin, associated with the warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern areas of the tropical Pacific. Only now it is enhanced by the climate crisis caused by human activity.
El Niño usually lasts between nine and twelve months. The last time it happened was between 2015 and 2016. And, consequently, 2016 became the hottest year in history, until it was surpassed in 2023. The current episode began around June last year and is expected to last at least until April, according to the WMO.
“Extreme events such as heat waves, droughts, forest fires, heavy rains and floods will intensify in some regions,” warned Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the WMO. “This will have important repercussions,” he said in a published report in November.
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A rising trend
Scientists warned last August that The average ocean surface temperature had reached the highest level since there are records. About 20.96 °C, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The previous record was also recorded in 2016. There is still no complete data for all of 2023, but releasing all this heat could take several months of this year.
“This sets the stage for higher than normal temperatures on Earth,” perhaps peaking around February, explained Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. “I believe this will be the case at least for the first six months of 2024,” Trenberth said to the Washington Post.
A trend is already being established. The last nine years, from 2015 to 2023, have been the warmest on record, the WMO maintains. The UN says there is only a 14% chance we will keep global temperatures below 1.5°C warming, compared to the pre-industrial era.
If everything continues as before, the world is heading towards an increase of between 2.5 °C and 2.9 °C in this same century. Thus, everything seems certain for 2024 to continue the trend of 2023. Therefore, it would not be surprising if it breaks the record and becomes the hottest year in history.