Vladimir Putin explained in his speech yesterday that modern Ukraine was entirely created by Bolshevik Russia and recalled that the neighboring country then benefited from “gifts to Ukrainian nationalism from territories historically belonging to Russia” such as, according to him, the case of Donbas, which was “shoved into Ukraine”. He thus announced the recognition of the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states and signed a decree ordering the Russian Defense Ministry to “guarantee peace” in both rebel enclaves by sending Russian troops to their territories.
Strategy or historical pattern? Russia’s military aggression in Donbas and the annexation of Crimea have galvanized public support for Ukraine’s Western leanings. But Donbas can easily end up as Transnistria, Ossetia or Abkhazia. Regions nominally under one country but in practice independent, controlled by a Russian-speaking minority and supported by the Russian government or troops directly. A part broken off from another state, non-countries that survive thanks to Russia.
The Donbas. The Ukraine he is targeting and trying to save is the one found in Donbas, a mixture of Ukrainian and Russian speakers (98%). Kramatorsk, in the part of the region controlled by the Kiev government, is the provisional capital of Donetsk province, as the city of the same name remains in the hands of pro-Russian rebels.
The leaders of the two separatist republics of Donbas, Denís Pushilin of Donetsk, and Leonid Pásechnik of Lugansk, had asked the Russian president to recognize their respective territories as independent and to sign military cooperation agreements with them. Just as Moscow did in 2008 in relation to the two breakaway Georgian provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in which the Russian Army was immediately deployed. Or as it happened in Crimea in 2014.
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The self-proclaimed independent states of Georgia a little over three decades ago were also achieved with the strong political, economic and military support of Moscow, which maintains bases in the area. Now a small fortress, the region has its own small security force, but it is Russia’s border service (under the Federal Security Service) that guards what Moscow calls a “border”. Language? The Russian, of course.
Together with Abkhazia, another Georgian secessionist region, it is one of the problem areas inherited from the Soviet Union. In the summer of 2008, following an operation in South Ossetia by then Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, the Russian army intervened in the region and repelled the attack. Then (as now with Ukraine) there was a climate of tension with Tbilisi because of its aspirations to join NATO. The so-called Five Day War it ended with more than 600 dead and with the recognition as States by Russia of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
What did you do? They placed “peacekeeping” soldiers there (now converted into soldiers garrisoned in military bases, some 13,000 between the two regions, according to Tbilisi’s calculations) and forced out international mediators and observers. Despite the agreements, the entry of the EUMM mission is not allowed either.
international strategy. Russia continues to advance in its fixation on determining the foreign orientation of post-Soviet space. The Kremlin uses South Ossetia and Abkhazia as a “foothold” to try to “destabilize” Georgia. Years ago, South Ossetia shielded itself and closed almost all routes of entry from the Georgian administrative line. Abkhazia, on the Black Sea, which has become a holiday area for Russians due to its good weather, was almost completely closed two years ago. Both regions have taken advantage of the coronavirus crisis to entrench themselves even more.
Transnistria. The same happens with this region. Its borders do not appear on any map and its stamps do not serve to take the letters to any place beyond this strip of land, anchored in the dawn of the nineties. It happened with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, in 1991, and the independence of Moldova, a remote state between Romania and the now compromised Ukraine. Moldova erupted in 1992 in a civil war promoted by separatists in the Transdniestrian region, who received immediate support from the Russians. After the armed conflict, Transnistria declared itself an independent republic.
Place that officially does not exist. It is not recognized by the so-called international community. As in other cases, the war situation in Transnistria was encouraged by Moscow, and NATO washed its hands of it. There was little desire to have problems with Russia. The story is very reminiscent of what happened later in Crimea. In fact, taking advantage of the fact that the Dniester passes through Ukraine and Putin’s strategy, the Transnistrian president, Yevgeny Shevchuk, even asked for Russia’s annexation.
crimea. That’s why you have to come back to this place. To the Russian process to illegally annex the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, located on the territory of Ukraine and under its sovereignty, which began nine years ago. The country split into two, pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian, with growing protests beginning in Kiev in late 2013, when then-President Viktor Yanukovych postponed signing the Association Agreement with the EU.
The visit of the then President of the Crimean Parliament, Vladimir Konstantinov, to Moscow in 2014 helped the pro-Russian movement to gain strength in Crimean society. Due to the magnitude of the protests, the Crimean president fled the country. The arrival of a pro-Western interim administration caused the pro-Russians to increase their activities on the peninsula. Despite the fact that it violated the 1997 and 2010 agreements between Ukraine and Russia on the position of the Russian Black Sea fleet, Russian troops were relocated to the peninsula. The result of a supposed referendum held under full control of the green men was that Crimea would join Russia. 77% of its inhabitants speak Russian.
History repeats itself, now in the Donbas, with a war approaching.
Image: Pavlo Palamarchuk/AP