The war in Ukraine has already exceeded day 485 and until Saturday June 25 of this year, the strategy of social strangulation and siege by Russian missiles to Ukrainian lands, had not had any anxiety or shadow, until the chief rebelled. of the Wagner group, a group of mercenaries at the service of the interests of Vladimir Putin.
This week’s analysis addresses the attempted mutiny inside the Russian ship commanded by Putin, which Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of an armed group that works under contract, started last weekend, which ultimately failed, but was successful. fissure Putin’s leadership, which now appears weaker before its allies and the international community, which observes that the Kremlin’s strong man is not so strong.
Key points:
- Vladimir Putin faced this movement classified as the biggest challenge in more than 20 years for his country, precipitating them into an internal struggle.
- The world expected the Kremlin strongman to respond to this affront with force, and what he did was remain silent for 48 hours. The question arises: why did you allow the insurgent leader to flee to Belarus and not punish him?
- The narrative of the skirmish was taken by Prigozhin, the rebel leader, who stated on video that what he was trying to do was organize a protest and not a coup d’état, affirms that what he wanted was to bring to justice military commanders who had misbehaved in the military operation in Ukraine.
- When Putin takes the microphone again, he does so through a conciliatory speech, very short, despite his custom, and which leaves several questions unresolved. This is what seems more like a pardon than a sanction, as he decides to give his war partner more employment contracts to join the Russian military.
This is a strategy game with the aim of resolving a crisis without causing a bigger one. Let’s see.
Putin’s loyal supporters say the crisis could be resolved, despite the Russian leader’s instinct to crush the rebellion immediately, even as he felt he had to first pacify the country by nullifying the gestation of a stronger social movement.
¨If you react quickly you can show the elites that you are afraid¨, stated Kiril Shamiev, a member of the European Council on Foreign Relations, who complemented by saying that at a tactical level, it is relevant to pacify a little and give hope and benefits to the mercenaries of the Wagner group. (SIC).
The previous revelation, dear readers of Merca2.0, shows us a scenario that was presented to obtain more economic support, than a disagreement in the course of the war and about the bad behavior of some members of the red army.
The manual for resolving a crisis indicates that an organization or government must show up immediately. Visibility is important and steps must be taken quickly and safely. In the case of Vladimir Putin, he tries to give an image of damage control.
However, the question remains as to whether Russia’s strongman continues to be, since the only public demonstrations so far have been for Prigozhin and not for Putin. Something is happening in the Kremlin.
We’ll meet later.
Federico Torres Lopez.
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