For a few years now, corn ceased to be an almost second-line crop and productively to tens of millions of tons of soybeans, to become the largest contributor to production at the national level and recovering lost ground that few predicted could return to. dedicate yourself to cereal. However, the Argentine producer once again opted for yellow grain and Argentina to consolidate itself as a major world supplier.
During the week, the harvesting of 6.45 million hectares was completed throughout the country, with a yield of 78.6 quintals per hectare (qq / ha), which allowed obtaining a production of 50.5 million tons, one million tons. below that obtained in the 2019/20 campaign but 8 million tons above the average of the last five cycles, indicated the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange (BCBA). Thus, culminated a campaign marked by the lack of water, but the technique of farmers, genetics and planting technologies, managed to achieve a considerable harvest.
Although the production obtained was not a record – an issue on which the national government does not agree, whose calculations address a harvest of more than 60 million tons, while the Rosario Stock Exchange estimated a threshing of 51 million tons -, Yes, a harvest is expected both economically and in terms of historical exports, referring to the volume of foreign exchange income, not in tonnage shipped, thanks to the considerable increase in the international price of cereal.
Links and added value
In dialogue with Infobae, the chief economist of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange, Agustín Tejeda Rodríguez, estimated that the gross value of production, that is, the amount of money measured up to and including the first transformation of the grain, whether it be milling or grain for the first link of beef production, will have an increase of 21% compared to the previous season up to USD 30.6 billion (USD +5.3 billion), while the added value, also called GDP of the chain, which is what each of the links that make up it adds, will expand 26% to reach the USD 14.8 billion.
“Once again, corn is one of the chains that shows the best performance and continues in these last campaigns supporting the contribution of the sector to the different economic variables,” said Tejeda Rodríguez. Beyond what happened to prices, with which all crops benefited, corn has had a very good production with good yields, despite the adverse weather scenario, which exceeded the estimates that we had at the beginning of the season. , where we discount higher losses due to the climatic scenario and that has to do with the performance of late corn. This means that the contribution increases again and that is going to be a record for the corn chain ”.
Another fundamental factor is exports, which according to the entity’s calculations, would also be record, to be around USD 8,100 million, a figure 38% higher than that registered in the 2019/20 cycle, allowing a 28% higher tax collection up to USD 3,500 million. In this way, Argentina would be exporting 35 million tons of grain. “We are talking about six consecutive growth campaigns, where the area and the yield and, therefore, the production have been increasing, and that makes it drive the rest of the links. Argentina has been consolidating with exports of over 30 million tons. We had 37 million in 2018/19 and 36 million in the previous one. Today we are at 35 million, but there may still be something more, it can go up. Corn is still competitive internationally ”.
Late corn, the key
As Tejeda Rodríguez said previously, late corn was the key to reducing losses due to the lack of rain, which hit the cereal planted earlier in a more forceful way. This management technology allows to extend the sowing window so that at the critical moment of the crop in which the yield is defined, it does not coincide with the lack of water. In other words, it is sown later to increase the chances of rain at a very important time for the crop, generally for the month of February.
This technique, which was used in more marginal areas, is today a tool widely used by the producer, especially if one takes into account the dry years that Argentina had to go through in recent times. For example, in this season that has just ended, 48% early corn was sown and 52% late, while in 2019/20, which was a good year in terms of rainfall, early planting contributed 63% of the area. and the late 37%.
As detailed to this medium by the head of Agricultural Estimates of the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange (BCBA), Esteban Copati, “the drought passed through the season from the beginning until good parts of the reproductive stages of the crop. There were very few rainy periods during the summer, but afterwards much of the agricultural area went through the cycle without great contributions, with accumulated well below the historical averages. Despite this, the volume of production that was reached was important and this, to a great extent, was possible thanks to the diversification of the sowing date, this management tool that is increasingly being adopted by producers”.
And he added: “This modality is very common in the north of Santa Fe or Córdoba, the entire periphery of the core region, which generally sows early corn, because it has a higher level of yields, but despite the late, which it is sown later and shortens the crop cycle, in some regions the yield potential that is achieved is similar to that of early plantings. Even what happened this year in Córdoba, there were better yields in late than temporary sowings, and to a great extent it is the result of the genetic development that accompanied this management tool and there are inputs that are adapted to this modality. This incorporation of technology allows corn, despite having passed a dry year, to have achieved a production volume very similar to historical records ”.
What’s coming
This mark of growth that corn has been showing for several seasons promises to be repeated in 2021/22, which in some areas of the country, already began with the movement of the first seeders. According to the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange, a new increase in the area is projected, calculated at 7.6% to reach the record of 7.1 million hectares. We are talking about the fact that, in a year that is again expected to be dry, the cereal will have an expansion around 400,000 hectares. “This is what we obtained from the survey we carried out and what the price and climate scenarios that we are observing give us. If the weather is good, we will have a record production, “said Tejera Rodríguez.
For the specialist, “there are opportunities for early and late corn in terms of prices. Beyond the fact that inputs have increased in these months, shortening the margin that corn had, “although he considered that in any case” they are above previous campaigns. We are once again facing a good opportunity ”.
Of course, the weather will be a determining factor: “You have to see if the weather is good. So far, the forecasts are not the most encouraging. We expect a year in terms of rains similar to last year, but the peculiarity is that we entered drier. We could also have a greater delay in sowing again, trying not to stick the critical period of yield to the time where we foresee lower rains than normal, so we could have a consolidation of late corn and put the date of its sowing as the more important”.
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