The Atlantic Current, a gigantic marine ‘conveyor belt’ that carries warm waters from the tropics to the North Atlantic, is slowing down and on the brink of collapse, which will alter temperatures in Europe. Scientists have been warning this for years. The most recent study not only confirms the loss of power of this marine current, but also foresees a sudden stop in the not so distant future. The halt will have consequences throughout Europe, where it will cause long droughts and plunge most of the continent into a permanent frozen winter.
“Once this happens, the movement of warm tropical waters to the North Atlantic area will cease, which will turn into colder waters and will have a decisive influence on the region’s climate & rdquor ;, assures the atmospheric physicist from the Complutense University from Madrid, Juan Jesús González Alemán.
According to this study, there are already sufficient indications in the behavior of this ‘conveyor belt’ of water (known as Southern Atlantic Overturning Circulation -AMOC-) as to determine that it is on the verge of an “imminent collapse”.
Thermohaline circulation (THC) is one of the most important components of ocean circulation on a global scale. Basically, due to its significant participation in the net heat flux of the entire globe, it is one of the determining factors of the global climate.
The AMOC, which is located within this conveyor belt, is responsible, for its part, for regulating the temperature in the southern area of the Atlantic. “Thanks to it, the climate in Madrid is warmer than in New York, even though they are at a similar latitude & rdquor ;, points out the atmospheric physicist.
Its operation is characterized by a flow of warm and salty waters that move through the upper layers of the Atlantic, while another flow transports the colder and deeper waters to the south that will later form part of the thermohaline circulation.
However, the engine that drives this Atlantic current has lost steam in the last decade and it is believed that climate change itself is responsible. “It is not known exactly, but many theories point to the Greenland thaw as the main reason for this slowdown& rdquor ;, assures González, since it is precisely the ice in the coldest places in Europe that allows this Atlantic current to function.
This, together with the density that surface waters acquire due to the deepening of climate change, has caused the system to be one step away from totally collapsing.
The study does not specify the time in which this phenomenon may occur, but it does not rule out that it will happen in the next few decades, and probably before the end of the century. “This will have catastrophic impacts for Europe and the whole world& rdquor ;, concludes the researcher, as it will occur in an abrupt way “radically changing the climate & rdquor ;.
In fact, this specific circumstance is considered a “turning point of the climate system & rdquor ;, which means that once it occurs, the climate in that area will never be the same again.
The nine climate ‘tipping points’
There are nine climatic turning points that have been included in the list prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), because they are seriously affected or are at serious risk of disappearance.
These nine elements are Arctic sea ice, Greenland ice sheet, boreal forests, permafrost, Atlantic Ocean current system, Amazon rainforest, warm-water corals, Antarctic ocean ice sheets. western and eastern Antarctica. All of these tipping points are interconnected and therefore what affects one has repercussions on another.
“This circumstance can be much worse than global warming, since with it the effects are noticeable little by little, but with this, however, it is a radical change with still unexpected effects & rdquor ;, he insists. Possible impacts include lower rainfall, much denser snow cover in more areas of Europe, problems in agriculture or a greater likelihood of even more intense events such as cyclones.
What happens, as González Alemán warns, is that, although it seems that these effects are contrary to climate change and could somehow balance it, it is very possible that this is not the case.
“There will be places where you can strike a balance between both phenomena, in others where it reduces the effects of climate change and in others where it reinforces it & rdquor ;, insists the researcher, who remarks that the only thing that produces this collapse is that the future scenario is” much more complex & rdquor ;. “We do not know all the effects it can have, and it will probably generate unpredictable events & rdquor ;, sentence.
Reference study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4
It may interest you: They confirm that the Atlantic ‘conveyor belt’ is slowing down