Since November 4, the date on which it reached its historical maximum price, Tesla has been cooling on the stock market. Despite its excellent results in terms of deliveries, sales, billing and profits, investors have punished the American manufacturer.
Normally, the stock market results of a manufacturer are linked to the money they earn (invoicing), to the vehicles they sell and manufacture, to the profit they achieve or to conquer large market shares. That with Tesla is very debatable, and it’s a textbook paradox.
Tesla is currently in its best historical moment. Last year it sold nearly a million electric cars. Its stock price is the highest of any car manufacturer in the world and exceeded one billion (with “b”) dollars. It announced record turnover (+71%), profits (+665%), sales (+87%)… it even beat BMW in the “Premium Wars” Americans.
In addition, this year it will have additional production capacity with the opening of two factories, Giga Berlin and Giga Austin, one in Germany and one in the United States, with which you can scratch off 2 million units. Meanwhile the Fremont and Giga Shanghai plants are on fire taking out cars.
One of its star launches, the Cybertruck, is delayed again, and several competitors will be on the street before
Does this matter to the markets? Well, the truth, little
Thursday the 27th of this week can go down in history for Tesla as a bad day. Its stock price fell by 11%. in a single session, rising from $938.83 as of Wednesday’s close to $829.10 as of Thursday’s close. It’s not nonsense lose in one day a value of more than 100,000 million dollars.
Tesla hasn’t fallen this much in a single day since November, when it topped more than $1,240 a share.
The analysts’ explanation is that this year Tesla will not present any new model and it will continue with a range of four cars, the S3XY or Model S, Model X, Model 3 and Model Y, militants in the D and E segment of high-tech electric cars. And the company won’t because the microchip crisis persists.
Elon Musk declared during the presentation of results for the fourth quarter -and closing- of 2021 that this year there will be no Cybertruck, no compact model, no Roadster, not even Semi trucks, because the damn chips are still missing. For more INRITesla is one of the manufacturers that is best coping with the lack of these components.
The second generation Tesla Roadster will be a very expensive and exclusive car. The first units (Founders Edition) are already reserved
But investors have also punished other emerging electric car manufacturers. Rivian Automotive fell 10% and is already worth the least since it went public in November. Lucid Group fell 14%. China’s XPeng fell 12%. Nikola was down 9% and Lordstown Motors another 8%.
Fortunately, Tesla “only” estimates that its volume will increase by 50% or more in 2022 compared to its record year, in a context in which large manufacturers have a hard time serving their customers and increasing waiting lists. When expectations are this high, these things happen.
All this confirms an open secret, and that is that Tesla’s price is hyperinflated for a long time. Manufacturers who are in the podium they sell more than 10 times the volume of Tesla, and in the medium term they will be taking electric cars to the streets at large, as customers are encouraged and as supplies of raw materials and components stabilize. Be careful, it will take a few years.
Tesla’s most affordable models are a commercial success even when compared to non-electric cars; in more than one country they are in the top 10 at the end of the quarter
The California-born -and now Texas-based- manufacturer last year earned 5,519 million dollars, having been 17 years without giving benefits in a complete fiscal year. This year is going to be one of transition, in which Tesla consolidates its current range -fundamentally Model 3/Y- and puts the two new factories into operation to reduce waiting lists.
If there are no components, it is understandable that Tesla delays launches such as the Cybertruck -presented in November 2019-, because starting production would mean making fewer deliveries at the end of the year. But speculators and some analysts don’t give a damn about that. They only want good news, reality, as good as it may be, they like less.
TSLA’s price target (so to speak) is over $1,000. At the time of closing this information is below 850 dollars per share. These drops are bringing Tesla closer to the real value it should have. Since November Tesla has lost almost a third of its maximum historical value, for not giving sufficiently spectacular news, although business is going like never before.